Three Keys and a Prediction for Ohio State vs. Indiana
Saturday's Top-10 matchup between Ohio State and Indiana is essentially a Big Ten semifinal ... the winner remains undefeated and has the inside track to a conference championship game appearance with only three games left on the regular season schedule. The loser's hopes of a College Football Playoff appearance take a massive hit.
While Ohio State is the heavy favorite in this game, they certainly don't appear to be taking Indiana lightly. Compliments about the Hoosiers success have come fast and furious during every public media session this week from players and coaches - and for good reason, frankly. IU is having the best season in program history to date and this is the first time in the history of Hoosier football that they're playing in a Top 10 matchup.
The opponent might be a bit of a surprise, but games against the best teams in the nation are a more regular occurrence for Ohio State and I expect them to be ready for anything on Saturday.
Here are my three keys to a Buckeye win:
Be Vigilant
After all of the trick plays that Rutgers pulled on Ohio State two weeks ago, it's going to take especially creative and deceptive play designs to catch the Buckeyes out of position. I expect that Kerry Coombs and Greg Mattison have this defense ready for a wide variety of looks.
Michael Penix Jr. is a very capable quarterback who is as gritty as they come. He's made some very good plays, despite knowing that he's going to physically pay for it. He's really tough. I think he plays with reckless abandon at times and I anticipate that IU is willing to put him in spots to take chances. If the Hoosiers are going to win, they have to play a near perfect game and they have to be willing to tolerate some risky decisions. Penix has the stomach to make things happen and I expect IU to come out fast and furious.
Justin Fields Needs to Hold Serve
While Justin Fields makes A TON of flashy highlight plays, perhaps his best attribute of all is his ability to make smart decisions. Given what the Hoosiers have done to teams through the first four games, there's no doubt in my mind they are going to try and pressure Fields like crazy. Their best chance is to get him out of rhythm ... which has proven to be an extremely difficult thing to do.
IU prides itself on interceptions and sacks. Fields has thrown a total of 3 interceptions in 476 career passing attempts over 29 games. While Buckeye fans collectively wince when he takes a hit, Fields has routinely been willing to take sacks instead of forcing throws in bad situations. He processes defenses at an extremely high level and just flat out doesn't make mental mistakes.
He's got lots of talent around him and he'll trust guys like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to get open. Fields may not need to be spectacular as an individual, although he often is just that. If he stays true to form, I don't think Indiana can stop him ... but he's going to be pressured all day long.
Force Indiana into Passing Situations
I think Indiana has a fairly good offense, but I don't think they can beat Ohio State in a shootout. I believe IU's best chance of pulling off an upset is by controlling the clock and keeping the Buckeyes offense off the field as much as possible. They really need to work ahead of the chains/have productive first down plays so they can run the ball and keep the clock moving.
The problem is they haven't been a very good running team this year.
If Ohio State can force them into passing situations, it may be harder for them to sustain drives and keep the Buckeyes offense on the sideline. This is likely to be the Buckeyes toughest defensive test to date. The defensive line play has been better than expected so far this year and the linebackers have certainly lived up to their potential. But the secondary has shown a lack of experience at times and they are a work in progress. I wouldn't call them a liability by any stretch - but they aren't the strength of the defense. I think it may help them have a good game if Indiana's offense becomes too one dimensional on Saturday.
Prediction
Final Score: Ohio State 45, Indiana 20
I think the Hoosiers hang with Ohio State in the first quarter, but I expect the Buckeyes to open a double-digit lead by halftime. Indiana has played well defensively this year, but they haven't seen an offense anywhere close to the level of the Bucks. I think tomorrow will be a reality check for them and I think the betting line is a very reasonable spread at three touchdowns.
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