Cowboy Basketball Still Controls Destiny as Big 12 Tournament Looms

The Pokes' road ahead won't be easy, but they at least have a path to their goals.

Mar 7, 2026; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys coach Steve Lutz speaks to a referee after a play during the first half against the Houston Cougars at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Oklahoma State’s hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid are incredibly low, but it still controls its own destiny.

Over the course of the 2025-26 season, the Cowboys have been on a roller coaster. After one of the best starts in program history, the Cowboys haven’t been able to keep up their success against Big 12 competition. 

Over the past few weeks, OSU’s status as a bubble team has disappeared entirely. While not many around the country believed OSU could maintain its nonconference level of success, there also weren’t many who expected the type of dropoff OSU had once it began playing some of the Big 12’s best. 

Against Big 12 competition, OSU managed only a 6-12 record, ending the season as the third-worst team in the conference standings. With the Big 12 Tournament marking the only guaranteed postseason action for the Pokes, they will need to win big this week to keep their season going, and most importantly, keep their hopes of a trip to the big dance alive.

Of course, this is one of the best parts of college basketball. If OSU wins out from here, it will be crowned national champion. The only problem is that it would take one of the most unbelievable winning streaks in sports history.

Still, the Cowboys could at least put their name back into the NCAA Tournament race with a nice run in Kansas City. With Colorado, TCU and Kansas being the Pokes’ path for the first three games, there might be some confidence that OSU could at least make it to Thursday.

While OSU was unable to put up much of a fight against Kansas in the lone regular season meeting, a couple of wins heading into that contest could give OSU some added confidence. The automatic bid in the Big 12 has basically been pointless in recent years, considering any team good enough to win the conference tournament has likely already been viewed as a national title contender.

Still, March needs Cinderellas, and there’s nothing stopping OSU from becoming one in 2026. If OSU can’t get into the big dance, this would be the fifth-straight season OSU has missed the NCAA Tournament, marking the longest streak since the program missed seven straight from 1984-90.

The chances of OSU winning the conference title are extremely slim, but the only thing that matters for the Pokes is that the chance is higher than 0%.