How Far Away Were Cowboys From NCAA Tournament Bubble?

Oklahoma State had another rough season, but it might not be that far from reaching its goals.

This season, the Cowboys were among the worst teams in the Big 12. Yet, a late-season surge still helped the Cowboys finish 12th in the standings and an opportunity to be considered the “home team” in their lone Big 12 Tournament game.

With the loss against Cincinnati in Kansas City, OSU fell to 15-17 and might have played its final game of the season. While OSU finished with a losing record in consecutive seasons for the first time in decades, the Cowboys had a successful season, all things considered.

In Steve Lutz’s first season as head coach, he helped set the tone for his tenure and has begun to build a culture in Stillwater. With an entire offseason to work his magic upcoming, the Cowboys could be a surprise team in the Big 12 in 2025-26.

While that is the hope for OSU next season, it wasn’t a far-fetched goal for OSU this season. Sure, it might seem like OSU was nowhere near any NCAA Tournament conversation with a losing record. However, the Cowboys were a few bounces going their way from fighting for a spot on the bubble.

As of Friday morning, the eight teams in the “first four out” and “last four in” sections of Joe Lunardi’s bracketology had an average winning percentage of 0.665. Meanwhile, the three power conference teams in that area had an average winning percentage of .606. For OSU to hit the overall winning percentage of the eight teams, it would’ve needed roughly 21 wins but only around 19 to hit the same average mark of the power conference teams.

OSU finished with 15 wins, but another four victories were easily within reach. Avoiding a last-second loss at TCU and a couple of more well-rounded performances at the Charleston Classic early in the season would’ve put OSU at 18 wins and near the bubble. Add in pulling off one more upset against a team such as Houston or Texas Tech, and the Cowboys would be at 19 wins.

Obviously, this is easier said than done, but the Cowboys weren’t completely out of the picture. If Lutz can build another solid roster this offseason, the Cowboys could begin to make a run at their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021.

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