Is the 2025 Season Already a Lost Cause for Oklahoma State?

The Cowboys are coming off one of the most embarrassing performances in program history.

Oregon defensive lineman Aydin Breland, right, pressures Oklahoma State quarterback Zane Flores, left, during the second quarter at Autzen. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Things were already looking bleak for the Cowboys, but Week 2 only made Oklahoma State’s outlook worse.

The Cowboys entered Saturday hoping to pull one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history. Instead, Oregon took little time to show exactly why it would have been one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history, winning 69-3.

Although OSU avoided a shutout and was a couple of possessions away from the largest loss in program history, that performance eclipsed the worst loss in the Mike Gundy era. Of course, that record was held by a 52-0 loss at Colorado, which was also OSU’s most recent game against an FBS opponent coming into Week 2.

OSU was anticipated by many to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12 this season and be fighting for a chance to make a bowl game. Considering OSU went 3-9 last season, lost every conference game and managed to look worse in Week 2 than it did at any point last season, the Cowboys’ low expectations might have been far too generous.

Coming into Week 2, ESPN projected the Cowboys to have some up-and-down matchups throughout the regular season. Still, ESPN only predicted OSU to have at least a 50% chance of winning in two games, projecting wins in home matchups against Tulsa and Houston.

However, things have changed a bit after OSU’s poor effort in Eugene. For example, OSU’s projected chance of winning its nonconference finale against Tulsa went from 88.6% to 78.7%. Yes, the Cowboys played so badly that ESPN is 10% less confident in OSU winning at home against a team that is now coming off a loss to New Mexico State.

OSU’s chance of winning every game in 2025, according to ESPN

Tulsa: 78.7% (88.6% before Oregon game)
Baylor: 18% (41.1%)
at Arizona: 13.3% (32.1%)
Houston: 27.7% (61.1%)
Cincinnati: 29.1% (48.1%)
at Texas Tech: 8.6% (24.3%)
at Kansas: 10.5% (20.3%)
Kansas State: 21.9% (32.9%)
at UCF: 13.6% (32.5%)
Iowa State: 16% (29.4%)

Coming into Week 2, OSU was projected to win two more games. That has dropped to one, but that is far from the most concerning thing. 

ESPN gives the Cowboys less than a 30% chance to win any of its nine Big 12 contests, with a 29.1% of beating Cincinnati being the top mark. That is a drastic shift from last week, when ESPN gave the Cowboys at least a 40% chance of winning three of those nine games. 

Things are looking rough in Stillwater after falling to Oregon, but there’s a chance OSU hasn’t even hit rock bottom yet this season.

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