No Bias, Straight Percentages, Who Returns the Most in Big 12 Football for 2020
Okay, last weekend we went through the Oklahoma State depth chart and projected the starters for next season. That is always a tenuous proposition, especially just a week after the bowl game that ended the 2019 season. What we found was plenty of experience, more than I can ever remember returning from one season to the next for the Cowboys. That got me thinking, how do the other Big 12 teams stack up with returning experience in the starting line-up and on the two deep?
Now, to be fair, we went back to the flip card or depth chart for the last game each team played. So, for Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State, that was the bowl games. Then we went back to the last regular season game for Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia.
Also, different schools do their depth charts different. Some may list extra positions, especially on offense with four receivers, a tight end, a running back, fullback and a quarterback. That adds up to eight players.
Often, you will find an extra position on defense, usually an extra defensive back. Special teams may list a kicker for PAT/field goal, kickoffs, a punter, snapper, holder, punt returner, and kickoff returner. We took all of it in for depth purposes, but we kept the starters at 11 on offense and defense and six or seven on special teams.
We also allowed for depth charts that went further than two-deep. One school listed five players at one position, Iowa State at running back. We used all names included for depth chart purposes. To come up with a way to differentiate, we used percentages.
Each team got a check for having a returning starting quarterback, even if they were injured and missed the final game. For high quality evaluation, we also used the Coaches All-Big 12 Team to measure potential standouts returning for each team.
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2019: 8-5/5-4)
The Cowboys return a ton of players, including 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball. They get the check mark for the return of Spencer Sanders at quarterback. This could change in the next 24-to-48 hours, but the Pokes could return Offensive Player of the Year in 2,000-yards plus rusher Chuba Hubbard along with Offensive Freshman of the Year in Spencer Sanders.
© Thomas Shea | 2019 Dec 27 USA Today Sports Images
On defense, they have Kolby Harvell-Peel returning as a first-team All-Big 12 player. In addition, they return three second-team All Big 12 players in wide receiver Tylan Wallace and linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and Amen Ogbongbemiga.
| Offense/Defense/Specialists | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 8 | 73% | 25-of-29 | 86% |
Defense | 10 | 91% | 26-of-28 | 93% |
Specialist | 6 | 86% | 13-of-14 | 93% |
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (2019: 5-7/3-6)
The Mountaineers return a lot of players for second-year head coach Neal Brown including getting the quarterback check with the return of late season emerging starter Jarret Doege. West Virginia got some good news in December with All-Big 12 defensive lineman Darius Stills choosing to stay over going in the 2020 NFL Draft. Stills brother Dante was a second-team All Big 12 selection.
Darius Stills chaing Pooka Williams of Kansas
USA Today Sports Images Jay Biggerstaff | 2019 Sep 21
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 9 | 82% | 23-of-27 | 85% |
Defense | 8 | 73% | 18-of-25 | 70% |
Specialist | 4 | 57% | 4-of-7 | 57% |
3. Texas Longhorns (2019: 8-5/6-3)
The Longhorns were the only Big 12 bowl team that got a win as they hammered Utah 38-10 in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Tom Herman has switched out his coordinators, as well as some other staff members and now former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich is on board calling plays in Austin. He will have a returning starting quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, but many of Texas playmakers did graduate. They have one returning second-team All-Big 12 player in sophomore offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi.
Sam Ehlinger breaks through the line on a quarterback keeper in the Alamo Bowl vs. Utah.
USA Today Sports Images
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 7 | 64% | 26-of-31 | 84% |
Defense | 8 | 73% | 25-of-31 | 81% |
Specialist | 4 | 67% | 12-of-15 | 80% |
4. Oklahoma Sooners (2019: 12-2/8-1)
Oklahoma won the Big 12 again, and for the most part, had a young team. On the top end, they will break in a new quarterback, but both contenders were prize recruits. They are losing two of their best players to the NFL early as wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and linebacker Kenneth Murray have both declared for the 2020 NFL Draft. They are still waiting on a decision on All-Big 12 center Creed Humphrey. If Humphrey returns, he is the reigning Offensive Lineman of the Year in the Big 12 and defensive lineman LaRon Stokes was the Defensive Newcomer of the Year in the conference. They also have five returning second-team All-Big 12 selections by the coaches. One of those was perfect kicker this season Gabe Brkic.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Precentage of Returning Starters | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 7 | 64% | 21-of-28 | 75% |
Defense | 8 | 73% | 21-of-27 | 78% |
Specialist | 5 | 71% | 10-of-12 | 83% |
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2019: 4-8/2-7)
The second season for Matt Wells at Texas Tech should be smoother as he will return a good number of starters and back-ups, but the key returner is his original starting quarterback and the guy that Texas Tech fans are enamored with, but can't stay healthy, in Alan Bowman. Tech will also return first-team All-Big 12 punter Austin McNamara. Unfortunately, standout linebacker Jordan Brooks and national interception leader Douglas Coleman III were both seniors. Tech is adding former Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 6 | 55% | 17-of-25 | 68% |
Defense | 7 | 64% | 20-of-25 | 80% |
Specialist | 7 | 100% | 18-of-19 | 95% |
6. Iowa State Cyclones (2019: 7-6/5-4)
This past season had to be considered a disappointment for Iowa State fans as the Cyclones were a popular pick to challenge for the top of the league. But Cyclones fans never stay down long and they will be excited to know that they return a group of talented players for Matt Campbell.
Iowa State tight end Charlie Kolar makes a grab in the Camping World Bowl against Notre Dame.
USA Today Sports Images Jason Venlove | 2019 Dec 28
The quarterback check mark is there with Brock Purdy back and tight ends Charlie Kolar (first-team) and Chase Allen (second-team) are both back, as is young running back Breece Hall. The defense returns seven starters including talented safety Greg Eisworth.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 5 | 45% | 20-of-27 | 74% |
Defense | 7 | 64% | 17-of-26 | 65% |
Specialist | 5 | 83% | 6-of-8 | 75% |
7. Baylor Bears (2019: 11-3/8-1)
Baylor has to replace successful head coach Matt Rhule and they will need to replace a number of players. While Rhule and his staff did recruit well and filled in holes, the success Baylor had this past season still relied in great part on players recruited by and off the success of former head coach Art Briles, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Baylor gets the check mark for returning quarterback with Charlie Brewer, but Brewer did go out of games three times with head injuries and that is a concern. Baylor is also waiting to see what junior defensive lineman James Lynch, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year will do with regards to staying or entering the 2020 NFL Draft. Baylor does have young talent with five second-team All-Big 12 selections by the coaches returning including linebacker Terrel Bernard and safety Grayland Arnold.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 8 | 73% | 18-of-25 | 72% |
Defense | 3 | 27% | 14-of-22 | 52% |
Specialist | 6 | 86% | 13-of-14 | 93% |
8. TCU Horned Frogs (2019: 5-7/3-6)
The Frogs don't return a high number of players, but that may be desired by head coach Gary Patterson as this last season represents a second down season in a row for TCU. They do return their quarterback and they are happy with sophomore-to-be Max Duggan and believe they can win a lot of games with the dual threat signal caller. They lose speedy playmaker Jalen Reagor and big defensive lineman Ross Blacklock as both have declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft. Now, Defensive Freshman of the Year in safety Ar'Darius Washington and first-team All-Big 12 linebacker Garret Wallow and safety Trevon Moehrig are both returning and that is good.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 6 | 55% | 22-of-29 | 76% |
Defense | 5 | 45% | 19-of-26 | 73% |
Specialist | 3 | 43% | 3-of-8 | 38% |
9. Kansas Jayhawks (2019: 3-9/1-8)
Les Miles at Kansas had a solid first season and he will be looking for a new starting quarterback for next season, but he does return running back Pooka Williams off the All-Big 12 team. Recruiting over returning starters is probably what the Jayhawks are most concerned with but they need a base. They do return all of their specialists.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 6 | 55% | 19-of-28 | 68% |
Defense | 5 | 45% | 16-of-28 | 57% |
Specialist | 7 | 100% | 11-of-12 | 92% |
10. Kansas State Wildcats (2019: 8-5/5-4)
Chris Klieman and his staff will have the most work to do this spring and heading toward next season as the Wildcats said good bye after their narrow Liberty Bowl loss to Navy to an entire starting offensive line and a big chunk of the defense that helped them all season long. They do get the check mark for the quarterback position as steady Skylar Thompson returns at quarterback. Thompson seems like he has been there in Manhattan for a decade, but he has one more season. He was the perfect quarterback to jump in with the offense that Klieman and his staff brought in from North Dakota State. Some of the sensational players that will return for K-State include kick returner Joshua Youngblood, who earned some All-American honors, defensive end Wyatt Hubert, and fullback Nick Lenners.
| Offense/Defense/Specialist | Starters Returning | Percentage of Starters Returning | Two-Deep Returning | Percentage of Two-Deep Returning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 3 | 27% | 15-of-24 | 63% |
Defense | 5 | 45% | 13-of-24 | 54% |
Specialist | 4 | 67% | 6-of-8 | 75% |
