What Latest College Football Bowl Projections Tell Us About Oklahoma State’s Future

The Oklahoma State Cowboys, at minimum, hope to make a bowl game this year. What do three bowl projections tell us about how the country feels about those chances?

Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Oklahoma State Cowboys haven’t been to a bowl game since the 2023 season. Heck, they’ve only won four games since that bowl game.

New head coach Eric Morris is out to change that. But it won’t be easy. The number to hit is six wins and while there are good vibes around the program, they have yet to play a game. But reaching a bowl game would be a good first step to his tenure.

Three different college football experts weighed in with their bowl game projections for the season and here’s what OSU’s projections say about what those analysts see in the Cowboys.

OSU’s Latest Bowl Projections

Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Recently, ESPN and On3 (subscription required) posted their initial bowl projections for the season. Two writers posted theirs for ESPN — Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach — while On3’s Brett McMurphy posted his. Their projections are below:

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Did not project OSU for a bowl game

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee

On3’s Brett McMurphy: Liberty Bowl vs. Florida

Bonagura not including the Cowboys among those teams going bowling is interesting because most preseason publications and college football analysts have Oklahoma State making a bowl game of some kind. The projections by Schlabach and McMurphy are meaningful because of which bowl games they tied them to — the Texas Bowl and the Liberty Bowl.

In the Big 12 Conference bowl game pecking order, the conference champion will go to the College Football Playoff. Any Big 12 team selected as an at-large team would also go into the 12-team field. From there, it’s a pecking order, starting with the Alamo Bowl. It’s followed by the Pop-Tarts Bowl, the Texas Bowl, the Liberty Bowl, the Cactus Bowl and the Independence Bowl. Other bowl-eligible Big 12 teams go into a pool of teams to be assigned to other games.

Schlabach sees the Cowboys as the fourth Big 12 team selected, assuming one Big 12 team makes the CFP. McMurphy sees them as the fifth Big 12 team selected. It isn’t all about record, though that’s a factor. The Alamo Bowl selects first after the CFP. The bowl may select the next-best team by record — which last year was BYU — or they could select a team with a lesser record knowing that fan base will travel to the game. Kansas State is a good example.

Last season’s Texas Bowl participants were Houston and LSU. The Cougars were 9-3 going into the game while the Tigers were 7-5. Houston was 6-3 in the Big 12 and tied for fourth place. Last season’s Liberty Bowl participants were Cincinnati and Navy. The Bearcats entered the game 7-5. They were 5-4 in Big 12 play and tied for seventh place. Geographic proximity likely played a role in the selection.

But it’s not hard to see where Oklahoma State could be going based on those projections. Schlabach sees the Cowboys as, potentially, a 6-3 team in league action and one that could end up on the outskirts of the Big 12 Championship game race. McMurphy, meanwhile, has taken a measure of the Cowboys that would indicate a 5-4 finish in Big 12 play, which would be enough to get to a bowl game.

Bonagura may change his mind as the season progresses. But, based on the percentages, the Cowboys and their fans have good reason to keep their fingers crossed for a bowl game. Morris probably wants those 15 extra practices. The fans would love an extra game to serve as a springboard for what could be a huge 2027.