What Wins, What Loses Game for Oklahoma State Against UCF in 2026
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Both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the UCF Knights missed out on bowl games last year. The two teams have higher expectations in 2026.
When they meet during the 2026 season, it will be a chance for OSU to break a two-game losing streak to the Knights since UCF joined the league in 2023.
Here is what wins and what loses the game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
What Wins the Game for Oklahoma State
Containing Alonza Barnett III
Alonza Barnett III is likely to be one of the most talked-about new quarterbacks in the Big 12 (along with OSU’s Drew Mestemaker). Barnett had a terrific season for James Madison in 2025 before he transferred to the Knights. He threw for 2,806 yards with 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions. But of note in this case was his 589 yards and team-best 15 rushing touchdowns.
Yes, he’s a dual threat. Oklahoma State’s run defense was awful last season, and the Cowboys are trying to remedy that with transfers. UCF is likely to use Barnett on planned runs, but it’s the off-schedule stuff where he gets out of the pocket that could be real trouble for the Cowboys. Keeping him between the tackles and not allowing him to create havoc is key.
Avoiding Interceptions
Speaking of Mestemaker, he’ll be looking to emulate what he did a season ago when he was the NCAA FBS statistical champion in passing yards (4,379), passing yards per game (312.8), total offense (4,468) and yards per pass attempt (9.46). But against UCF he’ll be facing the most experienced secondary he’s faced to that point in the season.
With four starters returning in the Knights’ secondary, including cornerback Jayden Bellamy, the Cowboys should be aware that UCF was No. 22 in pass defense last season, giving up 185.1 yards per game. Some of that was due to pass rusher Malachi Lawrence, who is now with the Dallas Cowboys. But those defensive backs and safeties played a role, too, and Mestemaker must avoid the traps they set.
What Loses the Game for Oklahoma State
Not Running Enough
This game has the earmarks of a contest where both teams could score a lot of points. When that happens, the tendency is to forget about the running game. The Cowboys can’t afford to do that. Caleb Hawkins needs to play a key role in this contest.
Hawkins rushed for 1,434 yards and had 1,804 all-purpose yards. He also scored 29 total touchdowns, the most by any true freshman in FBS history. Hawkins caught 32 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns last year, so he’s a stealthy weapon out of the backfield. Oklahoma State needs to use him heavily in this game, in whatever way helps to keep the chains moving and keeps time of possession in their favor. Failure to do so puts the Cowboys in danger of a loss.
Failing to Beat Duane Thomas Jr.
There are some great wide receivers in this game. But the opportunity exists for UCF wide receiver Duane Thomas Jr. to have a huge season for the Knights, especially with Barnett throwing him the ball. Last season he led the Knights with 53 receptions for 528 yards.
Thomas isn’t your typical No. 1 receiver, either. He’s 5-8 and boasts terrific speed. The Knights are going to create plays that get him in space and give him room to make the first move. He can also hurt teams with jet sweeps and even works in the return game. Who OSU puts on him defensively is key. Thomas will likely see time in the slot, which means OSU’s top edge corner probably won’t defend him often. It will be up to nickel corners or safeties to slow him down and that matchup could give the edge to Thomas. How OSU schemes him will be a key matchup.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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