Ole Miss Football Has an NFL Problem: It Goes Both Ways
The perception of the Ole Miss football program around the NFL, around the NFL scouting community and among NFL media draft evaluators is very different than the perception of the Ole Miss football program in Oxford.
I'm not even sure who's fault this is – but there's no way to watch the last three days of the NFL Draft and not come to the conclusion that Ole Miss football has an NFL problem.
The 2020 NFL Draft came and went without a single Rebel drafted. Two hundred and fifty-five college football players were drafted. Not one was from Ole Miss. It's the first time this has happened since 2013, but bizarrely the fourth time this has happened since the draft went down to seven rounds in 1994.
Entering the third day of the draft, it was expected that three Ole Miss players would be drafted somewhere in rounds four through seven. Another was kind of on the bubble. Not one heard their name called.
These "expectations" were based on big boards, mock drafts and things of the sort – public data and information that's supposed to be a somewhat accurate representation of how NFL teams think. Those are often based on a combination of tape analysis and (for the good ones) talking to sources within teams.
Those "expectations" have been wildly off base.
NFL teams do not value players coming out of Ole Miss very highly right now. Regardless of whether that evaluation of value is accurate or not, they just don't think highly of players coming out of Oxford. It's not just a one year sample.
Three Rebels were drafted in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Cool. But those three – A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf and Greg Little – were all expected to be first rounders. We're back to those expectations; they're just not correct.
Some thought DK Metcalf would be a top-10 pick one year ago. Nearly all had him in the first round. Most thought A.J. Brown would have been a top-20 pick. What happened? They both fell to the middle or end of the second round.
And here's the thing: they should have been the first two receivers taken. If the 2019 draft was re-done today, Brown and Metcalf would be locks for the top-20.
So there's some disconnect here, and I'm not even sure who's at fault.
Clearly, the NFL doesn't value whatever went on at Manning Way in the Matt Luke Era. That era is obviously over now, but it has lingering ramifications. At the same time, the league probably undervalues Ole Miss too much, as evident by what happened in 2019 when both Brown and Metcalf were fantastic as rookies.
Put yourself in the shoes of a high school junior watching the 2020 draft. A 16-year-old that just watched 255 players get drafted watched zero players from Ole Miss get drafted. Meanwhile, they watched five Mississippi State players be drafted and two Southern Mississippi players be drafted. Even Division II Lenoir-Rhyne got a guy drafted.
That's MURDEROUS for recruiting. Sure, it's a different staff at Ole Miss entering the 2020 season. Sure, Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic program got a kid drafted. But somehow, beyond any wild sense of imagination, The University of Mississippi did not.
Regardless of what the reality is, that perception is brutal.
I do not know who is at fault. The easy answer is that the Matt Luke regime is at fault. That's probably at least partially true, if not the major reason this is happening. But NFL teams are also getting this wrong.
I don't know if Scottie Phillips or Benito Jones or Josiah Coatney will make it in the National Football League. No one knows that. But I damn sure know with certainty that A.J. Brown will be starting on a team seven years from now.
Who's at fault? Probably both sides. Ole Miss needs to do a better job recruiting and developing talent. The NFL needs to scout better. We've known both things for years.
But right now, Ole Miss has an NFL problem, and it's never been more wildly evident than right now.
