How Penn State Can Make the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
At No. 28 in the NCAA men's basketball NET rankings, Penn State (7-8) is by far the highest-ranked team with a sub.-500 record and the only team in the top 70 with fewer than eight wins. The Lions gutted out a 55-50 victory over Maryland last week that interim coach Jim Ferry called making the best of an off night.
"Yeah, I think we can develop into [a tournament team]," interim coach Jim Ferry said recently. "I think we're pretty close right now."
With 21 wins in 2020, Penn State was a lock to qualify for its first NCAA tournament in a decade. So how can the team secure a bid this season with perhaps 8-9 fewer victories? Here's a road map.
Keep trading on that strength of schedule
Penn State is playing one of the nation's toughest schedules, which currently is ranked as the most difficult, according to Teamrankings. The Lions have wins over two ranked teams (Virginia Tech and Wisconsin) and have played 10 Quad 1 games, according to the NET rankings.
The Lions are 3-7 in those games, so getting another win or two in Quad 1 games would help. They'll have chances against No. 7 Ohio State on Feb. 18, No. 8 Iowa three days later and late in the season against Purdue and Minnesota. Penn State also has a postponed game against No. 4 Michigan to be rescheduled.
Tough stretch, no doubt. But the Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota and (if rescheduled) Michigan games would be at home, where the Lions are 6-2.
That schedule earns Penn State plenty of analytics goodwill. The Ken Pomeroy ratings weigh the team's strength of schedule at a firm No. 1. As a result, Pomeroy has Penn State at No. 30 overall. Again, Penn State is the only team in the top 50 with a losing record.
Go on a winning streak
Now is the time for Penn State to get hot. The victory over Maryland showed the team it can win games through the grind. The Lions face further winnable games at Michigan State (on Feb. 9) and at home against Nebraska.
Both sit below Penn State (4-7) in the Big Ten standings. Michigan State (91st in the NET) is having quite an off year. And Nebraska is winless in the conference. A three-game win streak certainly would boost the Lions heading into their home rematch with Ohio State.
Keep believing
Penn State absorbed a grueling loss Jan. 27 at Ohio State, falling 83-79 in a game it led by eight points in the second half. That marked Penn State's fourth loss of the season decided in the last two minutes. Two were in overtime.
But Ferry said the players continue to absorb these setbacks well. They have won two of three since, bouncing back from a forgettable second half at Wisconsin on Feb. 2.
"I liked the way we responded from a tough loss at Ohio State," Ferry said. "That was a game where we played another ranked opponent on the road and played well enough but lost it, devastating. To see these guys come back the next two days, they were just resilient. They're focused on the present, focused on getting better, and when they do that, they're going to give themselves a chance every game."
Penn State (7-8) vs. Michigan State (9-7)
When: 7 p.m. EST Tuesday
Where: East Lansing, Mich.
TV: ESPN
Radio: Penn State Sports Network
Betting line: Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite
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