Reading Between Penn State's Early Betting Lines
Should Penn State win at least 10 games this season? Do the Lions really have a 10-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff? And why are they double-digit underdogs to Ohio State?
Betting lines and projections for the 2023 college football season suggest Penn State will be a top-10 staple and contender for a New Year's 6 bowl game. However, the Lions face some friction to winning in Columbus and reaching the playoff. Here's a look at some early Penn State odds and what they mean.
Can the Lions Make the College Football Playoff?
ESPN's Football Power Index, updated in April, gives the Lions a 10.7-percent chance to make the final four-team field of the playoff era. That's even with Oklahoma but in a decidedly third tier behind teams in the top 8. Penn State is 10th in the FPI's projections.
Penn State's FPI slotting respects the team's defensive returns and offensive skill potential while showing pause about the quarterback situation. While sophomore Drew Allar is among the Big Ten's most promising young players, he also carries an unknown quotient at starter. Thus, the FPI likes but doesn't love Penn State. Yet.
Can Penn State Win 10 Games Again?
That seems to be the minimum expectation. The ESPN FPI model projects Penn State's win mark at 9.3, while FanDuel has set the season's over/under at 9.5. Repeating a 10-win regular season should be the baseline for Penn State.
That's still pressure, particularly considering the conventional breakdown of a 10-win season lands on two familiar and frustrating losses. Penn State is a preseason underdog against Ohio State and Michigan, of course, suggesting that oddsmakers don't expect the Lions to crack the Big Ten East ceiling this year.
However, the remainder of the schedule is tailored to 10 wins. The Lions play just two teams in the ESPN FPI's top-30 and host Iowa and Michigan. Ohio State is the schedule's most daunting road date, as always, but might not be the season's most important barometer. That game might come at home in November.
What Are Penn State's Early Betting Odds?
According to FanDuel, Penn State is favored in two of four early lines. You know where the Lions are underdogs.
Penn State (-16.5) vs. West Virginia: This is an astonishing early line, considering the teams haven't played in 30 years. But the Mountaineers are coming off a 5-7 season, and the ESPN FPI projects their win total at 4.7. The Mountaineers won't be an upset threat, but asking a first-time starting quarterback to cover such a number in the season-opener is daunting.
Penn State (-10.5) vs. Iowa: Game 4 of the season is at Beaver Stadium, where Iowa has lost three of its last four visits (that 2020 win shouldn't count). By late September, Penn State's offense should be in a much better groove. And if Iowa's isn't, 10.5 points is going to be a great value.
Penn State (+10.5) at Ohio State: Penn State's recent history against the Buckeyes suggests this line is mobile. Yes, the Lions have lost six straight to Ohio State. But three have been by nine points or less, and two by a single point. Penn State led Ohio State in the fourth quarter last year before giving up four touchdowns. Even at Ohio Stadium, this line hints at drawing out early money.
Penn State (-1.5) vs. Michigan: Meanwhile, why wouldn't the Wolverines be larger early favorites at Beaver Stadium? Last year's game wasn't competitive, no matter the halftime score, and the Wolverines' offense should be more effective. Jim Harbaugh is 2-2 at Beaver Stadium, having guided his team to a turning-point win at Penn State during the 2021 season. That this game won't happen until November still leaves plenty of schedule to intervene. But at this point, Michigan probably should be a bigger favorite. Maybe oddsmakers anticipate Penn State turning this game into a rare daytime White Out.
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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
