Penn State's Road to the Rose Bowl
Penn State's bowl projections still run quite a range, but one postseason game returned to view following Saturday's Week 10 slate. The Lions have a path to the 2023 Rose Bowl.
No. 15 Penn State (7-2) will climb a spot or two in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, based on its 45-14 win over Indiana and other results around the country. But what helped Penn State's Rose Bowl odds were losses by Clemson and Illinois, which reshaped the Big Ten's power grid.
Basically, if it wins out and Ohio State and Michigan make the College Football Playoff, Penn State likely is headed to the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2 in Pasadena. Of course, multiple factors will decide that.
Ohio State and Michigan remained on course to meet as unbeatens for the first time since their epic 2006 game. A repeat of that classic Ohio State 42-39 victory, or a close win by Michigan, could be enough to propel both teams (presuming one then wins the Big Ten title game) into the Final Four.
Two other results Saturday helped shape that possibility. First, LSU defeated Alabama in overtime, handing the Tide their second regular-season loss. No two-loss team has qualified for the playoff, as Penn State certainly remembers from 2016.
Then Notre Dame routed No. 4 Clemson 35-14, handing the Tigers their first loss of. Of Clemson's six playoff appearances, it has made the field twice as a one-loss team (not counting the 2020 season). In those instances, the playoff featured either one or no unbeaten teams.
Clemson's loss opened multiple playoff options, including two SEC teams (Georgia and Tennessee), a the potential for a one-loss Pac-12 champ and even a sight line for unbeaten TCU. The Big Ten might have some say about qualifying two teams as well.
The conference has not done that before. In fact, no conference has beyond the SEC. But if Michigan and Ohio State qualify for the playoff, a 10-2 Penn State team is the overwhelming favorite to return to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2016.
The Lions already were ranked ahead of one-loss Illinois, which added a second loss this past weekend (23-15 at home to Michigan State). Whoever represents the West in the Big Ten title game won't pass Penn State for Rose Bowl access.
Other Penn State bowl possibilities, assuming the team finishes 10-2:
Orange Bowl
- When: Dec. 30
- Where: Miami
- Matchup: ACC champ/representative vs. highest-ranked team from SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
- How it happens: A longer shot now, following LSU's win over Alabama. Four SEC teams (Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, perhaps even Mississippi) could be ahead of Penn State in the final CFP rankings. Even if two qualify for the playoff, one would receive the Sugar Bowl's automatic invite and the other heads to the Orange Bowl.
Cotton Bowl
- When: Jan. 2
- Where: Dallas
- Matchup: At-large vs. At-large (including one Group of Five team)
- How it happens: Another long shot, since the Cotton Bowl will match the highest-ranked G5 team against the highest-ranked Power 5 team available. Penn State would need to pass at least one Pac-12 team (UCLA, Utah and/or USC) and maybe another from the SEC.
Citrus Bowl
- When: Jan. 2
- Where: Orlando
- Matchup: SEC vs. Big Ten
- How it happens: At 10-2, Penn State returns to Orlando if it doesn't make a New Year's 6 game. The SEC spot is wildly up for grabs, with Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama and even Tennessee being possibilities, depending on the next few weeks.
In the meantime, Penn State returns home to host Maryland on Nov. 12 at Beaver Stadium. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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