Penn State Vs. Michigan: Nittany Lions Keys to Victory

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. | Penn State and Michigan have combined for a pretty staggering statistic, outscoring opponents a combined 211-0 in the third quarter this season. Penn State coach James Franklin said Wednesday that the teams’ defenses and “experienced coordinators” play into the dominance, one of several keys in this week’s showdown between the No. 10 and No. 3 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

“Now after having a good idea of what they’ve done in the first two quarters, [the coordinators] have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing and how they’re trying to attack you,” Franklin said, explaining that some calls get eliminated at halftime while others get leaned into. “I think it’s kind of like a player. You get into a rhythm of how to call the play and what we’re doing well and what’s giving us problems.”

The Big Ten added another layer to the game Friday afternoon, less than 24 hours before kickoff, by suspending Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh from coaching his team's final three games. So Harbaugh will not be at Beaver Stadium for Saturday's top-10 matchup.

That said, here are our keys to victory for Penn State against Michigan.

Shutter Michigan's run game

Maybe you’ve heard the number “418” a few times. Michigan rushed for a whopping 418 yards against Penn State in last year’s 41-17 drubbing, which prompted Franklin to say “everyone thinks they’re Aaron Donald, but they’re not.” He since has been on a year-long campaign to bulk up the Lions' defensive line.

Franklin has alluded since training camp that his team has indeed put on “good weight” across its defensive front. He also said this week that the line has become more disciplined and gap sound, while more game experience in the linebacker room helps, too.

Linebacker Kobe King said last year’s Michigan performance put a chip on this team’s shoulders. The Penn State defense has been lights out against the run, first in the nation by allowing just 60.6 yards per game. But Michigan is a different beast, with an All-American running back room and well-decorated offensive linemen.

Any hiccups Michigan has in the run game will be a major factor in quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s rhythm, too. McCarthy is completing passes at a historic rate of 75.7 percent but hasn’t had to work from behind the sticks — or behind in games — much at all. Winning first and second down on both sides of the ball is a nice subplot to the overarching keys in Saturday’s game.

Let it loose, Drew

Quarterback Drew Allar might’ve finally broken out of his shell at the Shell last week. Allar threw four touchdowns at Maryland, and though the yardage (240) wasn’t gaudy, he looked confident and delivered high-level passes at all areas of the field. He also used his legs a bit more, a pleasant surprise. Allar said something clicked before the last drive of the Indiana game, when he threw the 57-yard game-winning touchdown to KeAndre Lambert-Smith.

Franklin acknowledged that Penn State would have to make plays in the passing game this week. It decidedly did not do that at Ohio State, which had a direct correlation to the overall abysmal offensive performance Penn State put on display. A big change at Maryland was Allar’s ability to complete passes of 12-plus yards to five different receivers.

Allar wants last week to turn into continued confidence for the offense, while tackle Olu Fashanu said the outburst “came at the right time.” It will also be important to see if receiver Dante Cephas (six catches, 53 yards, two touchdowns at Maryland) can reprise his breakout role in the absence of Harrison Wallace III.

Sign-stealing, focus and the opportunity ahead

This game is Penn State’s last shot at convincing fans this season is not lost to another good-but-not-elite 10-2 record. King might’ve said it best this week:

“Everything in this game is like gold. We need this game. That’s really it," King said. "... This is a game that we feel like is going to help us in the near future. And we've gotta take advantage of it.”

Penn State currently leads Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten tiebreaker race, which requires all three teams to be 11-1 at the end of the regular season. Penn State’s coaches and players have played the 1-0, but quotes and moments like King’s have slipped out here and there. The team obviously recognizes what this game means, but it feels like they’re willing to show it publicly even just a little more than usual.

There is, of course, the underlying storyline surrounding Michigan’s alleged sign-stealing operation, which Franklin mostly danced around this week and shed a bit more light on during his radio show Thursday. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz wasn’t so subtle, making an obvious sign-stealing joke during a video for the team’s social-media channel.

Be Early. ⌚️
Be Loud. 👂
Especially on 3rd Down. 👌
(& every down)#WeAre pic.twitter.com/u6VvwoNoHp
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) November 9, 2023

Maybe Penn State has an air of confidence, underdog mentality and make-a-statement attitude this week that hasn’t always been there. Having an extra level of focus will be its own key, as Franklin always harps on a single player’s missed assignment having the ability to derail an entire play. That can’t happen Saturday.

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Max Ralph is a Penn State senior studying Broadcast Journalism with minors in sports studies and Japanese. He previously covered Penn State football for two years with The Daily Collegian and has reported with the Associated Press and Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Follow him on Twitter (X) @maxralph_ and Instagram @mralph_59.

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network.