Penn State Vs. Michigan State Preview, Predictions

The Nittany Lions will play their first Black Friday game in 41 years. The Spartans present an unpredictable opponent.

Penn State's last Black Friday game was historic. The second-ranked Nittany Lions defeated Pitt 19-10 at Beaver Stadium in 1982, setting up a Sugar Bowl date with top-ranked Georgia that produced Penn State's first national championship.

This Black Friday meeting with Michigan State won't have quite the impact for Penn State football, which still can secure its fifth 10-win season in eight years. And fittingly, Todd Blackledge, Penn State's quarterback for that Black Friday game 41 years ago, will be in the booth for NBC on Friday night. Here's our preview and predictions for Penn State vs. Michigan State.

Penn State (9-2) vs. Michigan State (4-7)

When: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday

Where: Ford Field, Detroit

TV: NBC

Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)

Betting Line: Penn State is a 20-point favorite, per DraftKings

Series History: The teams are tied 18-18-1

Last Meeting: Penn State 35-16 in 2022

The Story Line

First, this isn't the lead story line but should be: the Land Grant Trophy, photographed in a loading area of Michigan State's Spartan Stadium in 2018. Majestic.

The Land Grant Trophy at Michigan State's Spartan Stadium in 2018 :: Mark Wogenrich/AllPennState

For Penn State, this game represents a spectrum of goals. First, it's no small achievement (for most programs) to win 10 regular-season games in consecutive years. Ask USC how much they'd prefer Penn State's position to theirs. And yet, a win nevertheless would underscore how the Nittany Lions fell short of their mission, both internally and externally. James Franklin fired his offensive coordinator in part because Penn State scored a total of 27 points against Ohio State and Michigan. One resume line item Franklin seeks in his next OC is demonstrated results against the top of the schedule.

"A big one is data and information based on the people who’ve been able to score against their best competition in whatever leagues they’ve come from," Franklin told reporters in State College after practice Tuesday. "That's an important piece of this as well."

Penn State craves wins over its top-line opponents, sure, but still needs to win the rest of its schedule as well. As such, even before he hires an offensive coordinator, Franklin must win this game as a 20-point favorite, on a short week, in an NFL building. Ten wins matter to recruiting, donations and national perception, all of which matter in the coordinator hiring process. So this game still has plenty of meaning for the Lions.

Penn State Players to Watch

KeAndre Lambert-Smith: Penn State's No. 1 receiver has disappeared the past two weeks. He has one catch (for 6 yards) in two games and wasn't targeted against Rutgers. Playing indoors without weather concerns, Penn State should be throwing no matter the quarterback. Lambert-Smith needs to re-emerge.

Beau Pribula: Expect to see more of the No. 2 quarterback even if Drew Allar is healthy enough to start. Franklin has hinted for weeks at deploying Pribula more. Here's his chance.

Chop Robinson: This could be the defensive end's last game in a Penn State uniform, so savor it. Robinson was PFF's highest-graded edge rusher last week and he's rounding in form after a midseason injury. Time for Robinson to play his legacy game.

Michigan State Players to Watch

Katin Houser: The Spartans' quarterback is the reigning Big Ten freshmen of the week after throwing for a career-high 279 yards and three touchdowns against Indiana. Could be a "why-not" offensive day for Michigan State.

Maliq Carr: The 6-6 tight end is Michigan State's alpha target and caught the game-winning touchdown pass against Indiana. Carr vs. Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter is a tantalizing matchup.

Jaden Mangham: Michigan State's pass defense ranks 12th in the Big Ten in yards allowed but has nine interceptions. Mangham has four of those along with three pass breakups.

The Predictions

Max Ralph: Michigan State has one of the worst passing defenses in the Big Ten, so I'm really interested to see how Penn State's offense performs — whether we see Drew Allar or Beau Pribula. The Lions defense will come to play again, and 10 points might even be generous. In the last traditional battle for the Land Grant Trophy, there shouldn't be much to overthink for Penn State's chances at another 10-2 season. Penn State 34, Michigan State 10.

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State practiced on an empty campus for a short-week game on a Friday night in Detroit. Tickets are cheap and plentiful. Who knows how the Spartans will approach this? They've won two of three after a six-game losing streak. Their season ends Friday. It's likely the last game for interim head coach Harlon Bennett. That makes Michigan State unpredictable, and unpredictability is the last ingredient Franklin and Penn State want to introduce to this game. So the Lions will lean on what they know: Defense and a few Alex Felkins field goals. Penn State 27, Michigan State 13.

More Penn State Football

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Penn State improves to No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings

Peach Bowl CEO: Penn State 'makes sense' for us

The latest on Penn State's bowl projections

Penn State diversifies its run game with Beau Pribula

AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.