Penn State-Rutgers Prediction: On the Brink of Win No. 900
Penn State can reach a historic milestone Saturday at Rutgers, a place where it has never lost. With a victory, Penn State will become the eighth program in college football history to reach the 900-victory mark, joining Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Nebraska.
Who would have guessed before the season that the achievement might take seven weeks? Or that Penn State would visit SHI Stadium with fewer wins than Rutgers?
Here's a primer, and prediction, for Saturday's game.
Penn State (1-5) vs. Rutgers (2-4)
When: Noon Saturday
Where: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J.
TV: FS1 or Big Ten Network
Series History: Penn State leads 28-2
Last Meeting: Penn State 27-6 in 2019
Betting Line: Penn State is an 11-point favorite
About the Lions: The underclassmen are beginning to deliver an impact on the 2020 season. Penn State's two most dynamic offensive playmakers against Michigan were true freshmen Keyvone Lee (134 yards rushing) and Parker Washington (career-high nine receptions). They gave the offense a lively spark, which quarterback Sean Clifford managed well in his first turnover-free game of the season. Lee in particular was impressive against an albeit shaky Michigan defense, showing enough patience to wait for openings and bounce runs outside. With former starting back Devyn Ford returning this week, the backfield rotation will be intriguing to watch. Same for quarterback, where Clifford has reclaimed the starting spot but certainly will cede plays to Will Levis. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca seems to like Levis in short-yardage situations yet still has some throws to call from those formations. Defensively, a few more cornerbacks will help, particularly if Tariq Castro-Fields and Keaton Ellis can return. Neither played against Michigan. And linebacker Brandon Smith is growing more comfortable at his position, making five tackles (one for loss) against Michigan.
About the Scarlet Knights: Though it's not an entirely valid comparison, Rutgers is the Big Ten's most improved offensive team since last year. The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30.8 points per game, more than double its dismal average (13.3) of 2019. They can point to offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson, who has enlivened an offense even though it relies on a wild number of quarterbacks. Rutgers has played three, including starter Noah Vedral, who missed last week's win over Purdue. Vedral likely will start if healthy, though multiple quarterbacks could play again if he isn't. Art Sitkowski (19-for-28 against Purdue) was OK, but backup Johnny Langan sparked the comeback with some big second-half runs. Still, the Scarlet Knights have no history against Penn State. They haven't beaten the Lions since 1988 (a 13-game losing streak) and have been outscored 162-32 since joining the Big Ten. But the 10-point opening spread is the game's lowest since 2015, when Penn State won 28-3 as an 8.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Penn State found a run game last week, and its quarterbacks produced no turnovers. Combine those factors again, and Penn State should control the game. Rutgers has the Big Ten's least-effective scoring defense (35.7 ppg) and gives up a lot of yards (430.5). The Scarlet Knights will want to make this a wild scoring game, punching back against Penn State and trying to force mistakes. They're quite capable of doing that. Penn State's defense has to generate stress on the quarterback(s).
Penn State 35-27
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