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Penn State Gets Another Preseason Boost From ESPN

The Nittany Lions are third in ESPN's latest SP+ rankings, with one of the nation's highest projected win totals.
Mark Wogenrich|
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar passes from the pocket during the Blue-White Game at Beaver Stadium.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar passes from the pocket during the Blue-White Game at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Penn State Nittany Lions

In today's Penn State reading room, the expectation clock keeps ticking for the Nittany Lions, who continue to get more and more preseason love from ESPN. Elsewhere, the College Football Playoff format that favored the Nittany Lions last year is gone, and Abdul Carter signed his very big contract with the New York Giants. Here's what to know about Penn State football today.

ESPN's SP+ is all-in on the Nittany Lions

Penn State has been a spring star across multiple predictive platforms, particularly regarding its exceptional offseason retention program and its hiring of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. FOX Sports' Joel Klatt placed Penn State atop his post-spring rankings, counting the Nittany Lions as real national-championship contenders.

The data is behind Penn State as well. ESPN's Bill Connolly, author of the SP+ predictive model, has the Nittany Lions at No. 3 in his latest set of rankings. Penn State is behind only Ohio State and Alabama and ranks fifth in each of the offensive and defensive categories.

Some key takeaways from Connolly's latest release:

  • Penn State's average win total in the model is 10.4, lower than only Notre Dame (10.5) in the SP+ rankings. That bodes well for a high playoff seed.
  • Penn State has the lowest strength-of-schedule rank (29th) among the top 5 teams. The Nittany Lions start the season with a very favorable month of three non-conference games and a bye week before hosting Oregon for what likely will be the White Out.
  • Penn State has the highest odds (82 percent) among Big Ten teams of finishing 10-2 or better in the regular season. Strength of schedule matters here.

The 2025 Nittany Lions are going to make everyone's preseason playoff bracket. But where, considering that bracket will be different.

The College Football Playoff changes its seeding process

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff bracket will be filled through a straight seeding process based on the final CFP rankings. That means, the four conference champions will not receive the top four seeds. They will be guaranteed playoff berths but not first-round byes.

In some ways, Penn State benefitted from the seeding process last year. The Nittany Lions were seeded sixth, earning a path to the semifinals through SMU and Boise State. Had the adjusted format been in place last year, the bracket would have looked much different. As you can see, Penn State would not have hosted a first-round game and might have played Notre Dame a round earlier.

How the new format will affect the 2025 Penn State remains to be seen. The Nittany Lions likely will be a top-4 team again by going 11-1, thus guaranteeing a first-round bye. But even at 10-2, Penn State still would be positioned to host a playoff game. Ultimately, the seeding change benefits a team that has an Oregon-like season (unbeaten, Big Ten champ) and lands in a playoff game vs. Ohio State.

Abdul Carter signs a monster deal

Former Penn State star Abdul Carter signed his rookie contract with the New York Giants on Thursday, a four-year deal that guarantees him $45.2 million. It's the largest rookie contract ever signed by a Nittany Lion.

According to Spotrac, Penn State's five NFL draft picks will have a total contract value of nearly $81.5 million. Here's a look at their contract values in the NFL rookie structure:

  • Abdul Carter (No. 3 overall New York Giants): $45.255 million
  • Tyler Warren (No. 14 overall, Indianapolis Colts): $20.9 million
  • KJ Winston (No. 82 overall, Tennessee Titans): $6.4 million
  • Jaylen Reed (No. 187 overall, Houston Texans): $4.44 million
  • Kobe King (No. 201 overall, Minnesota Vikings): $4.42 million

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Mark Wogenrich
MARK WOGENRICH

Mark Wogenrich is the editor and publisher of Penn State on SI, the site for Nittany Lions sports on the Sports Illustrated network. He has covered Penn State sports for more than two decades across three coaching staffs, three Rose Bowls and one College Football Playoff appearance.

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