SI:AM | The Wider Impacts of College Football’s Conference Championship Games

Conference titles aren’t just on the line. The results could have a domino effect on the College Football Playoff.

Could Duke play playoff spoiler with a win in the ACC championship game? / Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. For the 10th year in a row, I’ll be at a concert during conference championship Saturday, but I’ll definitely be sneaking a look at my phone to check the scores. 

In today’s SI:AM: 
🦁 Lions’ big win
⚾ Cooperstown Contemporary Era ballot
🏈 Coaches in limbo

The bracket is almost set

Two days from now, we’ll finally know which 12 teams will be participating in the College Football Playoff. Tuesday’s rankings gave us a pretty good idea of who most of those teams might be, but this weekend’s conference championship games could throw the field into total disarray. Let’s take a look at all of the title games with playoff implications (sorry, MAC and Conference USA) to explain how things could shake out.

ACC championship: No. 17 Virginia vs. Duke (8 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC)

We’ll start at the end of the slate, because this is the game that could lead to total playoff chaos. 

Cal’s upset win over SMU last weekend led to a five-way tie for second place in the ACC. The conference was forced to go to the fifth tiebreaker (conference opponents’ win percentage) to determine who would face Virginia in the title game in Charlotte. The answer was Duke, which had finished the regular season at 7–5. 

The reason this matters is that the CFP format grants automatic bids to the five highest ranked conference champions. When that structure was established, it was envisioned as a way to have each of the four power conferences represented, along with one Group of 5 team. Now, it may mean the ACC gets left out in the cold. If Duke wins, it will not vault above any of the three Group of 5 contenders (No. 20 Tulane, No. 24 North Texas or No. 25 James Madison). In that scenario, we’d almost certainly get two G5 teams in the field. 

Sun Belt championship: Troy vs. No. 25 James Madison (7 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN)

The most likely way to get multiple G5 teams into the playoff relies on JMU winning this one, which it should. The game will be played on James Madison’s home field, and the Dukes are favored by more than three touchdowns.

The Dukes are 11–1 on the season, with their only loss coming on Sept. 5 against Louisville. They’re one of only four teams in the nation to have scored at least 52 points in four separate games (joining Indiana, North Texas and South Florida) and tied for second in the nation with five victories by at least 32 points. They’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 21.8 points per game. This is a really good team that has a solid case to be the Group of 5’s sole representative, even if Virginia wins the ACC. 

American championship: No. 24 North Texas vs. No. 20 Tulane (8 p.m. ET Friday on ABC)

The winner of this game can feel pretty good about its playoff chances. Given that both teams are already ranked ahead of James Madison, North Texas and Tulane have the inside track on the guaranteed G5 playoff bid. 

The selection committee prefers Tulane (10–2), but the betting markets favor UNT (11–1). The Mean Green are a 2.5-point favorite in this one, despite the game being played on the Tulane campus in New Orleans. 

North Texas has put up some jaw-dropping stats this season, leading the nation with 46.8 points per game, but it has yet to pick up any signature victories. Its nonconference schedule featured games against FCS Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State and South Alabama (all wins). Tulane, meanwhile, boasts victories over Northwestern and Duke, two bowl-bound power conference teams, as well as a conference win over a Memphis team that was ranked 22nd in the AP poll at the time. 

Mountain West championship: UNLV vs. Boise State (8 p.m. ET Friday on Fox)

I only bring this up because UNLV has the slimmest of playoff hopes. At 10–2, the Rebels could conceivably be considered for the fifth auto bid if Duke wins the ACC and James Madison suffers a shocking upset in the Sun Belt title game. Boise is the betting favorite here (-4.5) after winning at home in the regular-season matchup on Oct. 18, 56–31. 

Big 12 championship: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU (noon ET Saturday on ABC)

Teams on the playoff bubble will be rooting hard for the Red Raiders here. Texas Tech figures to be a lock for the 12-team field even if it loses to BYU. The Cougars’ only hope, meanwhile, is winning the conference championship. If they manage to do that, they’ll take away a bid from an at-large hopeful. 

The committee’s latest rankings had No. 10 Notre Dame as the last at-large team in the field, based on Texas Tech earning the Big 12’s auto bid. If Tech instead needs an at-large bid, that would leave one playoff hopeful on the outside looking in (such as Notre Dame or No. 9 Alabama). 

SEC championship: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama (4 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC)

As mentioned above, Alabama is in a precarious position on the playoff bubble, but winning the conference on Saturday can remove all doubt. The Tide already prevailed against Georgia on Sept. 27 in Athens, 24–21. 

The more interesting question is how the committee would treat Alabama if it loses this one. It’s tough to penalize a team for losing a third game when other teams below it in the rankings didn’t even earn a chance to play in a conference title game. But at the same time, if Alabama loses badly here and continues its trend of less-than-impressive results (its last four games have been a nailbiter over a 5–7 Auburn team, a win over FCS Eastern Illinois, a loss to Oklahoma and a closer-than-expected victory against LSU in its first game under an interim coach) then the committee would be justified in dropping the Tide a few spots. 

Big Ten championship: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana (8 p.m. ET Saturday on Fox)

It says a lot about the current state of college football that the game with the smallest impact on the national championship picture will be the conference title game featuring the nation’s two top teams. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are both 100% locks to reach the playoff, but I don’t agree with my colleague Jimmy Traina, who wrote yesterday that the game is “completely meaningless.” 

This game is going to be a ton of fun for neutral observers. You’ve got two undefeated juggernauts who have hardly been challenged all season, finally meeting to decide which is the real best team in the country. It’s the top two defenses in the nation against two of the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy. Who cares if both teams are already going to the playoff? 

And the conference title is far from meaningless for both teams. It undoubtedly means more to Indiana, which has only won the Big Ten twice and hasn’t done so since 1967. The Hoosiers’ only outright conference title came in 1945, when the Big Ten was still known as the Western Conference. Ohio State surely wants to add another conference championship to its trophy case, too. The Buckeyes haven’t won the conference title game since 2020. If they don’t win this year, it’ll mark the longest Big Ten title drought since they went six years between victories from 1986 to ’93. 

If all you truly care about is the playoff, there are CFP implications here as well. Would the committee drop Indiana out of the top four due to a blowout loss to the Buckeyes, thereby awarding a first-round bye to Texas Tech? Maybe, but try to enjoy the game without getting wrapped up in that. 

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The top five…

… things I saw last night: 
5. A soaring dunk by Sixers rookie VJ Edgecombe.
4. Edgecombe’s game-winning put-back to beat the Warriors. (Tyrese Maxey had a clutch block to seal it at the buzzer.)
3. Matthews Knies’s incredible effort on this solo goal. 
2. Jahmyr Gibbs’s juke on the sideline that left a defender stumbling like he was on a boat in high seas. (The pylon cam view at the end is the best angle.)
1. LeBron James’s assist to Rui Hachimura for a game-winning three at the buzzer. James passed up an opportunity to extend his streak of 1,297 consecutive games with at least 10 points to give the Lakers a chance to win.