Penn State Has a New Favorite to Become its Next Football Coach

A predictive market uncovers a new leader to replace James Franklin as the Nittany Lions' head coach.

Fireworks burst over Penn State's Beaver Stadium during the White Out game between the Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Editor's Note: This story was updated Nov. 5.

Penn State has a new leader in the race to hire its next football coach, though the process is a long way from over.

According to Kalshi, an online exchange that offers trades on future events, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz has supplanted Louisville's Jeff Brohm as the betting favorite to become the next Penn State football coach.

Drinkwitz has a 27-percent chance to become Penn State's next coach, according to Kalshi's latest trading data, which is determined by how many people bought "Yes" positions on his hiring. Brohm, the leader earlier this week, now is behind Drinkwitz at 15 percent.

This market is exceptionally fluid and relies on national media reporting and rumor-mongering to determine its positions. Brohm's candidacy, for instance, has lost more than half its value since Oct. 30, when he had a 40-percent chance of taking over at Penn State.

Some other Kalshi candidates include Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key (11 percent). Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko and Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline (10 percent each) and Duke head coach Manny Diaz (9 percent).

RELATED: The pros and cons of hiring Eli Drinkwitz at Penn State

Jeff Brohm joins the chat

Louisville Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm looks on before the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Brohm recently has emerged as a potential candidate to replace James Franklin, according to a source outside the Penn State program. On3's Pete Nakos also reported that Brohm is considered a candidate at Penn State.

Louisville is 7-1 and ranked 14th in the latest AP Top 25 this season, Brohm's third at his alma mater. ESPN gives the Cardinals a 21 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff this season.

Brohm has put together successful teams at his last three college stops. He led Western Kentucky to consecutive Conference USA titles and two bowl wins. In six seasons at Purdue, Brohm' had three winning seasons, including a 9-4 campaign in 2021, when the Boilermakers won the Music City Bowl.

Brohm became head coach at Louisville in 2023 and has compiled a 26-9 record so far. Penn State might have a difficult time prying Brohm from his alma mater and could be acclerating negotiations for a contact extension. However, Brohm is an offensive-minded coach who would bring a fresh approach to Penn State.

Scouting the other candidates

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz looks up at the video board against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Of the candidates in Kalshi's futures market, Drinkwitz is the most likely to have staying power. On3's Nakos reported that the Missouri coach is generating consistent buzz for the job.

In his sixth season at Missouri, Drinkwitz has a 44-26 record with a 2023 Cotton Bowl win over Ohio State. He's another offensive-minded coach who was a coordinator at three different programs before becoming a first-time head coach at Appalachian State in 2019.

However, Drinkwitz also is a coach to watch in the Florida search, according to Kalshi, which currently favors Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin. And Drinkwitz faces a huge game Saturday against another Penn State candidate.

The 19th-ranked Tigers host No. 3 Texas A&M in a key SEC game Saturday. Missouri still has an outside chance at making the College Football Playoff, while Texas A&M is the nation's highest-ranked SEC team at No. 3 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings.

Mike Elko as a Penn State candidate

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko looks on prior to the game against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Aggies coach Mike Elko would appear to be a natural fit at Penn State. He's an accomplished head coach who has been successful at Duke and Texas A&M. However, Penn State 1) might not be willing to wait for Elko's season to end if Texas A&M makes the playoff and 2) might not be able to afford him of Texas A&M offers a big new contract.

RELATED: The pros and cons of hiring Mike Elko at Penn State

Other candidates to watch are Ohio State's Hartline, whose offense recently put up 38 points in a win over Penn State, and Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea. Penn State also could circle back to Manny Diaz, the Duke head coach who has the Blue Devils at 5-3 in his second season. Diaz spent two seasons as Penn State's defensive coordinator in 2022-23.

Former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald (who has 3 percent of the Kalshi market) appears unlikely to make his return to coaching at Penn State. Northwestern fired him following allegations of hazing in the football program. Fitzgerald and Northwestern settled a lawsuit in August for an undisclosed amount.

Brian Kelly, recently fired from LSU, also is an extreme long shot to replace Franklin at Penn State despite getting 6 percent of the Kalshi market. A recent article in The Athletic catalogued the fractured relationship between Kelly and LSU.