Penn State Has Plenty Riding on the Start of the Matt Campbell Era

Penn State really needs the Matt Campbell era to go well. There’s a lot riding on it.

And while everyone understands that the preseason AP Top 25 poll is not a guarantee of future success, it is a reminder of how things are. But first, how things used to be.

Since 1993, when Penn State joined the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have generally enjoyed the benefit of being one of the Big Ten’s marquee programs. Except for a few seasons here or there, Penn State could look at a schedule and pretty well map out its wins and losses.

Certainly Michigan and Ohio State have often gotten the better of Penn State, but the gap has never been particularly wide, and the teams truly nipping at Penn State’s heels in the conference’s pecking order have been few and far between.

When Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska joined the Big Ten, the expansion did little to change this perception and in many ways just added to the pelts Penn State could collect regularly.

But that was then. This is now — a preseason AP Top 25 where Penn State, slotting in at No. 18, finds itself ranked behind six fellow Big Ten teams.

To be fair, this is not entirely uncommon. If we consider USC, Oregon, UCLA and Washington as longtime Big Ten programs. Penn State has had four or more Big Ten teams ranked ahead of it in the preseason Top 25 five times since 2016.

It is a reminder that while Penn State has enjoyed more success than not over the previous 10 seasons, after decades of relatively established dominance, it’s only recently that the Nittany Lions’ place in the Big Ten’s hierarchy has started to come into question.

How set in stone might this new order be? Let’s consider the teams ahead of Penn State in this first poll.

Penn State in the Big Ten pecking order

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell jogs at the start of a practice session inside Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio State and Oregon slot in at No. 1 and No. 2: There is no reason to think either program will fall from the sport’s elite anytime soon. They are almost too big to fail. Until Campbell can put up the same close-but-not-quite results against these teams as his predecessors did, the gap between Penn State and these two programs is undefined.

Indiana at No. 6: The Hoosiers almost certainly will not go undefeated again this year and are unlikely to repeat as national champions. But until Curt Cignetti falls back down to Earth, the Hoosiers have earned the nation’s respect.

USC at No. 14: A perpetual recruiting force, the Trojans haven’t been the world-beaters many expected them to be when they joined the Big Ten. But they are far from the bottom-feeders. As long as the talent is in L.A., the threat to win games will be too.

Michigan at No. 16: At this moment, the Wolverines have things to prove, but Kyle Whittingham doing well in Ann Arbor is about as safe a bet as you can make. Michigan ain’t going anywhere, and if anything, the likelihood of scandal and turbulent offseasons might be behind it.

Washington at No. 17: Jedd Fisch is doing a good job, but the Huskies will have to prove their staying power in the long run.

All told, you can make an argument that Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan and USC are all capable of maintaining or establishing a permanent place ahead of Penn State in the Big Ten hierarchy.

Penn State needs to get this right

A view from the new upper deck bleacher seats on the west side of Penn State's Beaver Stadium. | Mark Wogenrich | Penn State on SI

The Nittany Lions will always be bolstered by a massive stadium, passionate fans and a national brand. But that doesn’t change the fact that all of these things were true in the early 2000s, when Penn State struggled for nearly half a decade to win games. The conditions that led to that collapse may no longer exist, but that does not mean Penn State is without its weaknesses.

And so, the Nittany Lions really need Campbell to get this right, starting with winning the games Penn State has traditionally won. They really need Athletic Director Pat Kraft to spend wisely, and they need his decision to fire James Franklin to be correct.

They need the Beaver Stadium renovation to draw fans in the face of rising ticket prices, and they really need NIL money to flow. Penn State might be too big an entity to get left behind, but that doesn’t mean it can’t fall behind.

Because yes, Penn State can probably drop only so far down the hypothetical Big Ten power rankings. But that doesn’t mean Penn State can’t take a step or two backward at a time when it desperately is trying to take quantum leaps forward.

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