How to Interpret Penn State's Preseason Ranking in the AP Top 25

Penn State landed at No. 18 in the preseason AP Top 25, its lowest ranking since the 2022 season when it was among those teams receiving votes. The Nittany Lions also begin the season at No. 17 in the Coaches Poll, two rankings that reflect both respect and uncertainty about the team.

For the last three seasons of James Franklin's tenure, Penn State was a top-10 preseason team in the AP Top 25. The Nittany Lions ranked seventh in 2023, eighth in 2024 and second last season. But in two of those three seasons, Penn State finished below its preseason ranking (unranked last year and 13th in 2023).

For head coach Matt Campbell, the preseason No. 18 ranking is the second-highest of his career. Campbell's 2021 Iowa State team was ranked seventh after finishing ninth in 2020. That was Campbell's only top-20 preseason ranking at Iowa State, and the Cyclones went 7-6 and finished unranked.

His Nittany Lions, meanwhile, are a completely different program. Penn State has 55 new players on the 2026 roster, 40 of whom transferred into the program this season. Twenty-four of those players followed Campbell from Iowa State and will be central to the projected lineup.

All of which makes Penn State a team that one analyst called "seemingly impossible" to predict. Penn State could contend for a College Football Playoff berth, based on its roster experience and friendly schedule, or it could labor to bring together players from 18 different teams, including the 52 Nittany Lions who returned this season.

"The reality from our end of it is, every step of the way we were thinking about how we can build the best roster to be our best," Campbell said before training camp. "I think we grew immensely through the first 16 weeks of our time with this football team. But are we ready? Are we capable? We had a lot of injuries, and a lot of guys didn't practice this spring, so did we gain real momentum?

"I think this is a team that, if it’s going to reach its full potential, it's going to have to be able to be its best. Sometimes being your best is being a little lucky with injuries, being groomed to be its best physically and play its best in critical moments. I think those things are still out there. Like, what kind of team are we really? I think fall camp will tell us a lot more about who we are and where we're at."

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell jogs at the start of a practice session inside Holuba Hall. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Nittany Lions got their first real self-scout Aug. 15 at Beaver Stadium, where the team scrimmaged for the first time in training camp. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser said the scrimmage taught the coaching staff plenty about how the team has grown.

"I think we've come a long way from spring ball, which was hardly football in my opinion for what the standards are," Mouser said. "The nice thing is that we've had a couple days where it didn't go our way, where they really got challenged mentally to bounce back, which is going to happen.

"We're farther along than I would have expected, especially given the nature of us having a couple bumps and bruises. But I've been really pleased, and it's good to see those guys have a good day Saturday."

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