Prediction Time: How Will Penn State Confront Indiana?

Here are the top storylines and predictions for Saturday's Penn State-Indiana game.

Game on, finally. Penn State begins the 2020 football season Saturday at Indiana, and we have thoughts. And a prediction.

First, the details:

No. 8 Penn State at Indiana

When: 3:30 p.m. Saturday

Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.

TV: FS1

Radio: Penn State Sports Network

The line: Penn State is a 6-point history.

Now the keys to the game.

Is Penn State's passing offense ready?

Quarterback Sean Clifford had a meager passing game against Indiana last year, going 11 for 23, while tight end Pat Freiermuth caught two quiet passes. Figure in a new scheme, a true freshman (Parker Washington) starting at receiver and Clifford's expected adrenaline rush, and Penn State's offense might need a few series to find a rhythm.

Clifford doesn't have to compile a big quarterback rating but does need to be on top of coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's precision-based passing game. Penn State has skill players who Ciarrocca wants to swing into open space. If Clifford identifies them, Penn State can run up some points.

How much better is Indiana's passing offense?

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returns to the starting lineup for the first time in a year, surrounded by one of the Big Ten's best sets of skill players.

Receiver Whop Philyor leads Indiana in double-digit receiving games, Ty Fryfogle went for 131 yards receiving against Penn State last year and tight end Peyton Hendershot is coming off a 52-catch season.

This is perhaps the game's defining matchup. Indiana led the Big Ten in pass plays of 20+ yards last season, while Penn State ranked 12th in pass plays allowed of 20+ yards. Big test for Penn State's defensive back seven.

How 'gritty' is Penn State's offensive line?

Defensive end Jayson Oweh said the line looked "really, really gritty" from his view during training camp, a perception many teammates shared. Tackle Rasheed Walker and guard CJ Thorpe have led an attitude change, while new position coach Phil Trautwein led a technical upgrade (he loves the two-hand punch).

Penn State clinched last year's win over Indiana with a nine-minute scoring drive in the fourth quarter fronted by strong line play. If this group clears room for running back Noah Cain, Penn State can own time of possession and determine the game's pace.

Penn State's defensive ends will be vital

Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh were at the center of Indiana's pre-game film study, since it wants to keep Penix upright. The quarterback gained 20 pounds of injury-prevention muscle during the offseason but still hasn't played a full season because of injuries.

The Hoosiers want to keep him upright and in the pocket long enough to showcase his live arm and talented receivers. Toney and Oweh, who combined for 13 sacks last year, seek to disrupt that.

This is a program-changing opportunity for Indiana

The Hoosiers still burn about their last two losses to Penn State, both by one possession. And they're certainly aware of trailing the series history 22-1.

But following an eight-win season, Indiana feels as though its on the verge of a breakthrough. It has to win games like these to get there.

Indiana hasn't beaten a top-10 time since 1987 (31-10 over No. 9 Ohio State). Now's the chance.

The prediction

This promises to be a big, sloppy, high-scoring, mood swing of a game, fitting for 2020. Penn State has the better roster pedigree and the edge at quarterback and offensive line, which will be major keys.

But Indiana is on the verge of putting together a season similar to that of Minnesota in 2019. The Hoosiers are close, and this might be their coming-out party.

Ultimately, Penn State outlasts Indiana 31-28, leading to a showdown with Ohio State.

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