What the Early College Football Bowl Projections Say About Penn State

Matt Campbell's Nittany Lions begin spring practice in March seeking to get back into College Football Playoff contention.

Penn State Nittany Lions football head coach Matt Campbell waves to the crowd during a Big Ten wrestling match vs. Nebraska. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State begins spring football practice in late March, opening the slow churn to the Sept. 5 season-opener against Marshall. Baby steps to the fall, sure, but you can't blame college football for getting ahead of itself despite coaches who insist on following the "the process."

Several too-early bowl predictions expect Matt Campbell to deliver a swift turnaround in his first season at Penn State, though a playoff appearance isn't in view just yet. We'll cover a few of these projections before assessing whether they're aiming too high, too low or just right.

Penn State in the way-too-early bowl projections

Penn State Nittany Lions interim head coach Terry Smith holds up the George M. Steinbrenner Trophy with his team after the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl against the Clemson Tigers at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Once a 2025 College Football Playoff title contender, Penn State ended the season with a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Clemson that nevertheless tugged at the heartstrings. Interim head coach Terry Smith called it the "greatest moment of my life," a fitting personal tribute to his seven-game stretch in charge.

While fixed in its proper amber, the moment nonetheless is prologue for Campbell and his new staff. They're aiming higher. New quarterback Rocco Becht said that Campbell is peering toward a playoff bid. The early bowl predictions don't get him quite there just yet.

Brad Crawford of CBS picks Penn State to face Texas A&M in the ReliaQuest Bowl (date TBA) in Tampa. That would be a unique Big Ten-SEC game, with one team (Penn State) looking up and the other likely disappointed in not returning to the playoff.

Meanwhile, Brett McMurphy of On3 projects an even more intriguing game. He has Penn State taking on LSU in a duel of first-year coaches charged with winning national championships at their new programs. Kiffin also has some fun history with Penn State, having endorsed trolling after Ole Miss defeated the Nittany Lions in the 2023 Peach Bowl.

Both are good picks, but Penn State is aiming higher.

Is Penn State a playoff contender in 2026?

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Though spring practice hasn't begun yet, there are signs that Penn State is at the foothills of a playoff climb. Campbell quickly has assimilated his 24 former Iowa State Cyclones (among 40 transfers) with Penn State's 52 returning players.

He has done that by introducing "accountability teams" to encourage bonding and beginning to install his culture across position groups. Players have reacted positively.

“The culture here that’s in place, the new culture that’s here with [Campbell], has been outstanding,” returning offensive lineman Cooper Cousins said.

Penn State opened Beaver Stadium today for interviews with more than 30 players, including transfers and returnees.

QB Rocco Becht discussed the “change in the locker room” over the past 2 months. pic.twitter.com/AVzYCNJsXU

— Mark Wogenrich (@MarkWogenrich) February 25, 2026

Culture doesn't impact third-down conversion rates or red-zone offense but can lead teams astray when it goes sour.

“We're just here to just play ball and to really have fun again,” returning lineman Anthony Donkoh said. For me, that's what I've seen. The biggest thing for our team is, a lot of guys are just having fun being themselves. There's no pressure from the coaches, no pressure from the strength staff. 

“You're not having to worry about somebody breathing down your neck, whether you make a mistake or stress about even a small thing. We’re just able to be free, and that's how it is in the team right now. That's why we were able to get close really fast.”

On the field, Penn State has some advantages. Becht enters his fourth starting season as the most experienced quarterback in college football. He has an offense loaded with productive players (notably at tight end) and a coordinator in Taylor Mouser whose playcalling "fearlessness" will blend NFL concepts.

Then there's the schedule. No Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon in Campbell's first season. No Illinois or Iowa, either.

Penn State's nine Big Ten opponents went a combined 33-48 in conference play last season. Of the six Big Ten teams that didn't play in a bowl game, four are on the Nittany Lions' schedule. And while Ohio State visits Texas for a non-conference game, Penn State will play a de facto home game against Temple at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field in September.

No wonder FOX Sports' Joel Klatt said Penn State hit the "schedule lottery."

"I don't know if their team is going to be a 10-win team, but their schedule is a potential 10-win schedule," Klatt said. "... I think they certainly have nine wins on that schedule and possibly 10 and maybe 11. It could be a good year in Happy Valley with Matt Campbell."

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