What ESPN's FPI Says About Purdue's Bowl Chances, Strength of Schedule and More
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There's an expectation for Purdue's football team to show serious progress in the second year under head coach Barry Odom. After a 2-10 season in 2025, which included an 0-9 mark in Big Ten play, the Boilermakers are hoping to take a step up.
What does ESPN's new Football Power Index (FPI) say about the Boilers' chances in 2026? It does have a more positive outlook for Odom's program, but the preseason projections still have Purdue missing out on bowl eligibility.
Here's a quick rundown of what ESPN's FPI says about Purdue heading into the 2026 campaign.
Overall rank: No. 71
Purdue comes in ranked as the No. 71 team in college football, per ESPN's preseason FPI. The Boilers are ahead of only three power conference teams: Iowa State (No. 72), Boston College (No. 78) and Stanford (No. 80). This also means the Boilermakers are the lowest-ranked team from the Big Ten.
It's hard to argue against this ranking without seeing the 2026 squad take the field. The Boilermakers have failed to win a Big Ten game in the last two seasons and have totaled just seven victories since the 2024 campaign.
Projected record: 4.3-7.7
Obviously, those aren't whole numbers, so let's just say that Purdue is expected to finish the 2026 season with a 4-8 record. If you want to be slightly more positive, you could round upward to 5-7. Although it's not exactly where Odom wants this program to be, a four-win year would be an improvement from the past two seasons.
Finishing a season with a 4-8 record won't be viewed in the most positive light, but it would mean that, at the very least, the Boilermakers won at least one Big Ten game (probably two) and have become more competitive in Odom's second season in West Lafayette.
Bowl game chances: 25.1%
The projected win total may be four games, but Purdue does have a 25% chance of reaching a bowl game this season. That's not a great number, but it does provide hope after so many struggles in back-to-back seasons.
Purdue doesn't have the easiest schedule in the world (more on that later), but it is significantly less challenging than what it has faced in the previous two seasons. If the Boilermakers can get some momentum early in the season, they might be in the chase for bowl eligibility in November.
Strength of schedule: No. 23
Once again, Purdue will play one of the top-25 toughest schedules in America in 2026. The positive? The Boilers don't have Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon or USC on the docket. That makes life somewhat easier in West Lafayette.
But Purdue still plays reigning national champion Indiana, Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State. It is playing 11 power conference opponents, with Indiana State being the only non-power team on the schedule. The Boilermakers are also playing seven opponents that won at least eight games last year. So, the schedule is easier, but it's not easy.
Conference champion: 0.1%
So you're telling me there's a chance?! To be honest, this probably isn't on anyone's mind heading into the 2026 season. Odom has talked about wanting to win championships in West Lafayette, but that's a goal for down the road. The primary concern this year should be winning a few Big Ten games and competing for a bowl bid.
Indiana proved it's possible to go from the bottom of the Big Ten to a conference contender quickly, but the likelihood of that happening for Purdue this year is slim. In case you couldn't tell that from ESPN's percentage.
Playoff bid: 0.5%
Much like the conference championship, a spot in the College Football Playoff is a pipe dream for the Boilermakers this season. If the Boilermakers are even in contention for a spot in November, it would be considered a massive accomplishment.
Along with Purdue's 0.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff, it has been given a 0% percent chance to win the national championship or make the National Championship Game.
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Dustin Schutte is the publisher of Purdue Boilermakers on SI and has spent more than a decade working in sports journalism. His career began in 2013, when he covered Big Ten football. He remained in that role for eight years before working at On SI to cover the Boilermakers. Dustin graduated from Manchester University in Indiana in 2010, where he played for the men's tennis team.
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