Updated NCAA tournament projections: San Diego State hovering around bubble
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As we move closer to Selection Sunday and the start of the NCAA tournament, ESPN’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi has released his updated bracket projections.
Coming off a 1-1 road trip against Colorado State and San Jose State, little has changed for the San Diego State Aztecs. Lunardi has the Aztecs atop his list of ‘Last four in’ for the 2025 tournament. He projects the Aztecs to play Arkansas in a ‘first four’ game in Dayton, Ohio.
Boise State, San Diego State’s upcoming opponent, is listed as a ‘Next four out’ team by Lunardi. San Diego State beat Boise State on the road in early January 76-68 and will look for the season sweep over the Broncos at Viejas Arena on Saturday night.
The Broncos are currently at No. 46 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, seven spots ahead of San Diego State. A win over the Aztecs would even Boise State’s record against quad 1 opponents at 3-3. San Diego State has only played three games on the season against quad 2 opponents. A win over the Broncos would even San Diego State’s record in those games at 2-2.
Boise State has reached the NCAA tournament in three straight seasons but has yet to earn a win in school history, sitting at 0-10. San Diego State has reached the NCAA tournament five times under head coach Brian Dutcher, reaching the national title game in 2023.
Two teams that the Aztecs are chasing in the regular standings, New Mexico and Utah State, are solidly in the tournament as of now. Lunardi lists New Mexico as a nine-seed in the South Region, taking on No. 8 Gonzaga in the opening round. He lists Utah State as a nine-seed in the Midwest Region, taking on No. 8 Oregon in the opening round.
Houston, San Diego State’s marquee win this season during the Player’s Era Festival in Las Vegas, is listed as a two-seed. The Cougars (20-4, 12-1) continue to lead the Big 12 standings with seven games left to play in the regular season standings. They’ll be tested on their upcoming road trip that includes games at Arizona and Arizona State.
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Bodie DeSilva has been covering sports in San Diego for more than a decade. He previously covered San Diego State athletics for Scout/Fox Sports.