San Diego State vs. Cal picks, predictions for college football Week 4 matchup

San Diego State will look to hand Cal its first loss of the season on Saturday

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs run onto the field for the start of the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

After a Week 3 bye, Sean Lewis and the San Diego State Aztecs host the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Sep. 20, at 7:30 PM PT at Snapdragon Stadium.

The late-night kickoff is a preview of the new 'Pac-12 After Dark' featuring a soon-to-be Pac-12 school in SDSU hosting a former Pac-12 team in Cal, with Pac-12 media partner CBS Sports Network hosting the matchup.

SDSU is 1-1 on the young season, picking up a blowout win at home over Stony Brook, 42-0, on Aug. 28, followed by a tough 36-13 loss in Pullman to future conference foe Washington State on Sep. 6.

Meanwhile, Cal is off to a strong 3-0 start, blasting Oregon State 34-15 in Corvallis to begin the season, followed by a 35-3 route of Texas Southern and a 27-14 win over Big Ten opponent Minnesota last Saturday.

For San Diego State to pull off an upset, they'll need another big game from running back Lucky Sutton. Sutton rushed for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Stony Brook and 88 yards on just 15 carries against Washington State.

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jayden Denegal (4) looks to the sideline for a play against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

Cal is giving up just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing teams, while Sutton himself is averaging 4.9 yards per carry for the Aztecs. Something will have to give, and that will likely play a huge role in determining the outcome on Saturday night.

The national media is overwhelmingly projecting Cal to coast to 4-0 on the year, while San Diego State would slide to 1-2 with a loss. Here is a look at predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday's tilt.

Bleacher Report: Cal 34, SDSU 20

SDSU is expected to avoid getting blown out by Bleacher Report's David Kenyon, although a two-touchdown loss at home is far from ideal for the Aztecs.

Dimers.com: Cal 30, SDSU 17

The model at Dimers.com simulated the outcome of the Golden Bears vs Aztecs over 10,000 times, with SDSU's win probability coming in at just 17% compared to 83% for Cal. The average final score was Cal 30, San Diego State 17.

ESPN SP+: Cal 30, SDSU 17

Bill Connelly at ESPN released his Week 4 picks using SP+, a tempo and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency. The model gives SDSU just a 20% chance of winning this game, projecting Cal to win by an average of 13.2 points.

Fox Sports: Cal 34, SDSU 13

Fox Sports used the Data Skrive betting model, which projects a healthy win by Cal over SDSU, easily covering the 12-point spread.

Sportsbook Wire: Cal 34, SDSU 12

USA TODAY's sports betting site has Cal winning by just over three touchdowns on Saturday.