ESPN's FPI Outlook for Southern Miss Football Drops Drastically After 4-Game Skid

During the preseason, ESPN's Football Power Index, or FPI, had a positive projection for the Golden Eagles, but that has changed after four straight losses.

Southern Miss WR Mario Sanders catches a touchdown at Troy. | Russ Cloy Photography

Before the 2026 college football season kicked off, we told you about one particular bold prediction for the Golden Eagles, not from a reporter, but from a series of simulations. ESPN's Football Power Index, a series of simulations and point systems, is used to predict a team's games and season outcomes.

In the preseason, the FPI predicted the 2026 Southern Miss Golden Eagles would finish 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the Sun Belt, with a 24.5 percent chance of winning the Sun Belt West Division. After the Golden Eagles' loss to Auburn, the FPI's expectations hadn't changed much, except that Southern Miss was then predicted to finish 7-5, with the Louisiana game a close toss-up. Now, after four consecutive losses and some shakeups in the Sun Belt, the FPI has a brutal outlook for USM's remaining games. Let's take a closer look.

Overall Win Predictions

Coach Blake Anderson | Josh House

A lot has changed for Southern Miss after falling four straight times to Auburn, UConn, Tulane, and Troy. The FPI has dramatically reduced its prediction for Southern Miss, now expecting the Golden Eagles to finish 4-8 on the season. As far as wins, here is the rest of Southern Miss' schedule, and the FPI's win chance percentage:

Opponent	Team Win Percentage
10/17 vs. Arkansas State	Arkansas State 53.8%, Southern Miss 46.2%
10/24 vs. Louisiana	Louisiana 69.8%, Southern Miss 30.2%
10/31 @ UL-Monroe	Southern Miss 76.4%, ULM 23.6%
11/5 vs. James Madison	James Madison 88%, Southern Miss 12%
11/14 @ Louisiana Tech	LA Tech 78%, Southern Miss 22%
11/21 vs. South Alabama	South Alabama 62.6%, Southern Miss 37.4%
11/28 @ Old Dominion	ODU 58.2%, Southern Miss 41.8%

One thing that doesn't quite add up is that the FPI predicts Southern Miss to finish 4-8. Meanwhile, in the chart above, you can see Southern Miss is given a 50+ percent chance to win only one game, the ULM game. However, the next two closest chances for Southern Miss to win are against Arkansas State and Old Dominion.

Postseason Dreams

A squad of Auburn defenders make a tackle in Southern Miss' 43-8 loss to the Tigers. | Auburn Athletics

Much like the Golden Eagle player in the above picture, Southern Miss ' postseason hopes have also been brought down in the FPI's eyes. The Golden Eagles now have a 0% chance to win the rest of their games, a 9.1 percent chance to reach the bowl-eligibility threshold of six wins, a 1.5 percent chance to win the Sun Belt Conference, and a 0.3 percent chance to win the Sun Belt Conference.

Overall Rankings and the Sun Belt Conference

Another scene from Sun Belt Football Media Day in New Orleans on Thursday afternoon. | Josh House

At the beginning of the year, Southern Miss began the season ranked No. 87 out of all 138 FBS teams. But after five games and four devastating losses, the Golden Eagles have dropped significantly, now sitting near the bottom of the FBS at No. 120. They currently sit as the third-lowest-ranked team in the Sun Belt.

Speaking of the Sun Belt, many of the other teams have exceeded their initial expectations, most notably Georgia State, which started the season at No. 127 in the preseason and now sits at No. 83 heading into Week 7. Below is a graphic of the full conference rankings.

Sun Belt Conference Team	Preseason FPI Ranking	Current Ranking	Current W-L Prediction
James Madison Dukes	#75 of 138	#51 of 138	11-1
Georgia State Panthers	#127 of 138	#83 of 138	8-4
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	#99 of 138	#86 of 138	8-4
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	#108 of 138	#88 of 138	7-5
Georgia Southern Eagles	#103 of 138	#90 of 138	6-6
Troy Trojans	#95 of 138	#94 of 138	6-6
South Alabama Jaguars	#112 of 138	#97 of 138	7-5
App State Mountaineers	#109 of 138	#104 of 138	6-6
Arkansas State Red Wolves	#107 of 138	#106 of 138	5-7
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	#117 of 138	#111 of 138	4-8
Old Dominion Monarchs	#85 of 138	#117 of 138	4-8
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	#87 of 138	#120 of 138	4-8
Marshall Thundering Herd	#104 of 138	#129 of 138	5-7
UL-Monroe Warhawks	#138 of 138	#136 of 138	1-11

Looking at the FPI, it looks like the future is set for the Golden Eagles. But a real-world view shows that football happens on the field and not in a simulation. For all the latest on Golden Eagle football and more, remember to follow Southern Miss Golden Eagles On SI on social media and our homepage.