What ESPN's Latest FPI Projections Mean for Southern Miss Football

ESPN's Football Power Index is a series of simulations run by the company to determine a range of outcomes for every college football team's season, as well as the probability of obtaining six wins, reaching the conference championship, and making the playoff.

Before the season kicked off, we outlined the FPI's projections for Southern Miss in 2026. But now, after the first two weeks, in which the Golden Eagles have had a blowout win against Alcorn State and a blowout loss at Auburn, the FPI's outlook for Southern Miss has shifted.

Overall Win Projections

Southern Miss Football, Mario Sanders — Southern Miss WR Mario Sanders finishes off a 38-yard pass for a touchdown during the Golden Eagles' 49-3 win over Alcorn State on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026, at Renasant Stadium in Hattiesburg, Miss. | Josh House

To start the season, Southern Miss was predicted by the FPI to finish with seven total wins, with a possible eighth win from a toss-up between Southern Miss and Troy. But now, with Southern Miss achieving one of its predicted wins (Alcorn State) and losing to Auburn as predicted, the Golden Eagles are projected to win only six games. The next predicted wins are UConn (69.5%), Arkansas State (62.8%), UL-Monroe (84.6%), and South Alabama (58.8%).

Now, you may notice that there are only four hypothetical wins. And four wins, plus the one Southern Miss already has, do not equal six. There is a catch. Southern Miss is currently in a close toss-up with Troy, with a 49.7 percent chance of winning. That toss-up would be the sixth overall win for USM if they could pull it off. It would also give the Golden Eagles bowl eligibility. There is one more game that is not quite as close and could be a potential seventh win this season, according to the FPI projections, and that's the Southern Miss-Louisiana game. In that one, Southern Miss has a 47.9 percent chance of winning based on the current projections. But let's get back to that bowl eligibility line...

Postseason Prediction

Southern Miss-Auburn, 202 — Sep 12, 2026; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles quarterback Ethan Hampton (5) attempts a pass as Auburn Tigers defensive lineman Cody Sigler (94) goes for the tackle in the end zone during the third quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The pass attempt did not get past the line of scrimmage and Southern Miss was penalized for intentional grounding which resulted in a safety. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Much like the initial preseason FPI projection, the Golden Eagles still have postseason dreams. Bowl eligibility by the NCAA requires a team to have at least six regular-season wins. The FPI gives Southern Miss a 64.2 percent chance of reaching six wins, assuming at least one of the two toss-ups mentioned above goes in the Golden Eagles' way.

Southern Miss is also given a 16 percent chance to win the Sun Belt West Division, which ranks third behind Louisiana (30%) and Louisiana Tech (18.7%). After that, Southern Miss is given a 7.0 percent chance of winning the Sun Belt Championship. Now, should the dice roll in USM's favor, reaching the Sun Belt Championship would mark the Golden Eagles' first championship appearance since losing the 2015 Conference USA Championship to Western Kentucky. We are a long way off from that being a reality, but it's something that can still be considered this early in the year.

There's even a little bit of playoff hope for the Golden Eagles, with a 0.5 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, but even that small percentage is a big stretch, considering that the Auburn game was the toughest on the schedule and already ended in a big loss. Southern Miss would have to win out from UConn to Old Dominion, which they have a tenth of a percent chance of doing, then win the conference championship over presumably reigning champion James Madison, who has the highest chance (25.3%) of winning the SBC East Division. Not saying it can't happen, but definitely don't hold your breath for it.

So Where Do We Go From Here?

As said, it will take A LOT for Southern Miss to top the West Division, so let's focus on the realistic view. Southern Miss has to take the lessons learned from the Alcorn State win and Auburn loss and make the right adjustments against their current opponent, UConn. Then, for some spark, the Golden Eagles need to "upset" some teams they are not favored against at all, such as Louisiana Tech, James Madison, or Tulane.

So, what exactly do these ESPN FPI projections mean for Southern Miss football? In all honesty, not much, considering it's in the same category as preseason rankings that don't mean much either. However, it seems the Golden Eagles are on a path to be better than many critics believed before the season began. We'll see how it all turns out when the dust settles at the end of the year.

ESPN's FPI projections are subject to change from week to week, and should something change drastically for the Golden Eagles, Southern Miss Golden Eagles On SI will provide another update at that time.

Add us as a preferred source on Google