Predicting the outcome of every Week 3 Pac-12 game

Pac-12 play is approaching after what will be an action packed Week 3

The Pac-12 had a decent Week 2 with seven teams winning their non-conference games. 

Both Oregon and Utah had a chance to regain some confidence by beating up on FCS opponents, Washington State pulled off a major upset in Madison over No. 19 Wisconsin, and USC continued to assert their dominance in their matchup over Stanford. Unfortunately for Colorado, they were blown out by Air Force, Arizona State and Arizona both lost to their non-conference opponents in games that were at one point closer than the final score indicated. 

The conference as a whole will be playing their last game this week before diving into Pac-12 play next week. I myself am still tuning up the predictions, as I went 8-3 during my Week 2 predictions. I missed on Washington State, Stanford (on a bye this week), and I agains doubted Oregon State which came back to bite me for the second consecutive week. My prediction record through two weeks is now a solid 17-6. 

With that being said, let us dive into my Week 3 predictions for every Pac-12 matchup!

South Alabama vs. UCLA

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With UCLA seeking their first 3-0 start since 2015, they have what should be a third consecutive cupcake of a game. The Bruins have been beating up on lesser opponents in the first two weeks, they do need to be on their toes. The Sun Belt was responsible for three major upsets last week, with Appalachian State beating No. 6 Texas A&M, Marshall beating No. 8 Notre Dame and Georgia Southern taking down Nebraska all in one day, all on the road.

The Bruins have a 82.6% chance to win according to ESPN's FPI, and while this South Alabama team will keep this game closer than it should be thanks to Toledo transfer Carter Bradley at quarterback and electric playmaker La'Damian Webb, I think UCLA wins. 

Score Prediction: UCLA 38, South Alabama 20

Cal vs. Notre Dame

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden Bears have been unimpressive in their two wins over UC Davis and UNLV, who was a late interception not happening away from winning. This will be their first road game of the year, and it is against a Notre Dame team with a lot to prove. If Cal has any chance at winning, it's because of their stud freshman running back Jadyn Ott. This Notre Dame defense has been thrashed on the ground, ranking No. 79 in total defense, and No. 113 in rush defense which means they need to bring their "A" game.

Notre Dame will also be without starting quarterback Tyler Buchner, who is out for the year. This means it us up to Drew Pyne to help the Irish get their first win of the year, and Marcus Freeman's first win as head coach. I think Notre Dame comes out really aggressive on offense, leaning on their run game which has yet to have a good game, and I think they secure their first win.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Cal 16

#12 BYU vs. #25 Oregon

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Oregon was able to jump back into the AP top-25 after thrashing Eastern Washington, but I still don't know what to make of this team. This will be a great test for Bo Nix to see how he does against better teams, as he looked terrible against Georgia. BYU is no Georgia, but they do provide a good challenge ranking No. 35 in total defense. ESPN's FPI and the oddsmakers both are giving the edge to Oregon, likely because it's a home game, but not by much. 

The two teams have played six times prior, splitting the matchups. I think BYU builds off their huge double overtime win over No. 9 Baylor, and knocks off a second ranked opponent. BYU has a top-50 passing offense, while Oregon ranks No. 117 in the country in allowed passing yards per completion. The spread is at 3.5 right now, and I think it will in fact be a tightly contested game with the Cougars pulling out on top. 

Score Prediction: BYU 35, Oregon 28

Colorado vs. Minnesota

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

This Colorado team is continuing to look like a team that won't scratch the win column this year. They were absolutely manhandled by Air Force, giving up 435 yards on the ground. Their offense had no right answer at quarterback, as after turning to JT Shrout he flopped, going 5-of-21 for 51 yards. They also haven't gotten the run game going, as they have yet to have someone surpass 60-yards rushing. The Buffs rank No. 125 in total offense so far, and are taking on a confident Minnesota team.

While it is hard to judge Minnesota off their opening matchups against New Mexico State and Western Illinois, games that they won by 38 and 52, the Gophers do have one of the best running back combos in the country. Their two early beatdowns have them ranked No. 1 in both total offense and defense, which obviously their opponents played a major role, but this Colorado defense will likely have no answer for the tandem of Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts. The Gophers open as 27.5 point favorites, and will likely continue their tour of blowing teams out.

Score Prediction: Minnesota 45, Colorado 10

Colorado State vs. Washington State

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Coming off a huge win over Wisconsin, the Cougars are looking to start 3-0 for the first time since 1989, and maybe rejoin the top-25 for the first time since 2019. They have yet to hit their stride in the arial attack, but we have seen flashes from Cam Ward. I think this is the game that he lights up the box score. 

Colorado State is the right opponent for this to happen, as they are on a seven game losing streak dating back to last season and have looked abysmal this season. The Cougars' defenses showed out last week, now it is time for the offense that there was so much hype surrounding to make some noise. 

Score Prediction: WSU 42, CSU 17 

#11 Michigan State vs. Washington

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Arguably the best game of the week, Mel Tucker makes his return to the Pac-12 to take on what is looking like a dangerous Washington team. I was all in on Michael Penix prior to the season, and he is putting on a show ranking top-15 in passing yards, touchdowns, and QBR. He has a chance to help Washington prove that they are one of the most slept on teams in the country under new coach Kalen DeBoer. Penix is 1-1 against Michigan State in his career, and has better weapons this time around.

Michigan State on the other hand has the best pass rusher in the country right now in Jacobt Windmon, who has 5.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. This is the primetime game on ABC, and my gut is telling me to go with the Huskies. I think their offense which ranks as the No. 3 offense in the country will force Michigan State to rely on their quarterback Payton Thorne more than they want to, and I don't think he can can go for blow for blow with Penix. If Washington can take away the Spartans' run game they have a great chance to pull off the upset.

Score Prediction: Washington 38, Michigan State 28 

Montana State vs. Oregon State

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State has been responsible for two Mountain West powers losing games, and two losses in my predictions. They pulled off a miraculous win over Fresno State and appear to be on track to start 3-0. Chance Nolan has done well, but the star of Oregon Sate is running back/linebacker Jack Colletto who has been making plays on both sides of the field. 

They will need his power in the run game, and his best tackling to slow down the two quarterbacks that Montana State uses. Tommy Mellott is used more as a thrower, but Sean Chambers is a dynamic runner who leads the team in rushing touchdowns. The game is a neutral site matchup being played at the Portland Timbers/Thorns stadium, but I think Oregon State should still be confident. ESPN's FPI gave them an 89% chance of winning, and I think they will blow Montana Stat out.

Score Prediction: Oregon State 38, Montana State 15

San Diego State vs. #14 Utah

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There may be some bad blood between these two teams, as San Diego State was able to pull off the upset last season back when Charlie Brewer was the starter for the Utes. Utah has playoff aspirations, and appear to have the talent on both offense and defense to get there. They did have a slip up in a hostile environment against Florida, but that loss may have poked the bear. 

San Diego State lost to Arizona Week 1 , a game in which I picked them to win. I like the Aztecs a lot, but I am still going Utah. I don't think journeyman Burmeister can break down the Utes' defense with his legs like Anthony Richardson did, which is ultimately what gave Florida the edge. The Utes are 4-0 against San Diego State when they are ranked, and quite frankly, if they have any chance at making the playoff the need to win out.

Score Prediction: Utah 35, San Diego State 20

Fresno Stae vs. #7 USC

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USC is quickly working their way up the rankings, and have a chance to assert their dominance against a Mountain West team in Fresno State that has been giving the Pac-12 trouble. The connection between Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison has been a revelation for the Trojan offense, as those two may be the best quarterback receiver combo in the country. Their offense did get stumped in the second half against Stanford, but they will likely make sure that doesn't happen again.

If Fresno State has any chance of winning, it will be because of quarterback Jake Haener. He led the Bulldogs to an upset over UCLA last season, and almost pulled one off against Oregon State last week. He will need to matchup Caleb Williams to keep Fresno State in the game, which he very well could do. This USC defense is clearly the weakness of the team, so this game may be very tight for a while. However, I have learned my lesson about picking the Mountain West. I think USC wins a shootout.

Score Prediction: USC 45 Fresno State 35

North Dakota State vs. Arizona

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This can be a program shifting win in a way for the Wildcats despite NDSU's FSC status. The. Wildcats had a prime chance against Mississippi State, but Jayden de Laura tried to do too much and threw them out of the game. I expect him and Jacob Cowing to get back on track this week.

It will be tough though, as NDSU is essentially the FCS' Alabama, winning nine out of the last 11 national championships. The Bison are also 6-0 since 2010 against FBS programs beating Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, and No. 11 Iowa. I think the Bison win a close one here.

Score Prediction: NDSU 28, Arizona 21

Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State

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After keeping the game within striking distance against No. 8 Oklahoma State after being down two touchdowns, the Sun Devils fizzled and were exposed by the Cowboys' offense. This is a perfect confidence booster game for Emory Jones and the offense, as he was sacked three times last week. 

Eastern Michigan is allowing over 330 yards passing per game, which I think will allow for Jones to thrive. The Sun Devils are favored by 20, and I expect them to surpass that mark.

Score Prediction: Arizona State 45, Eastern Michigan 14