Five Takeaways from Syracuse's Loss at North Carolina
1. SYRACUSE NEEDS SIDIBE, BUT CAN YOU COUNT ON THAT?
Syracuse was outrebounded by 17 overall, including 14 on the offensive boards. That led to North Carolina winning the second chance points battle 24-4 and points in the paint 42-24. The edge the Tar Heels had inside was the major difference in the game. Syracuse shot a higher percentage (47% to 40%), shot better from three (34% to 21%), had more points off turnovers and blocked more shots. They just could not get a rebound after North Carolina missed a shot.
This was yet another game without Bourama Sidibe or Frank Anselem. Not having those two bodies inside left Syracuse without an answer for UNC's bigs. Sidibe averaged 15 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks per game against the Tar Heels last year. That was a killer as Dolezaj was overmatched more than usual with UNC's massive front line. The question then becomes when will Sidibe be back? We don't know for sure, and the message from Jim Boeheim in postgame press conference is that Sidibe continues to have issues with his legs.
At this point, it seems the wise thought process is to not expect him back. If he does end up being available in the future, that is a bonus. Right now, Syracuse needs to get Frank Anselem back and work with Jesse Edwards to be more physical inside. Edwards is skinny, but he is tall and long. He can be more impactful inside with the right attitude. And Syracuse will be tested again inside as they next face a Pittsburgh team that dominated them on the glass just two games ago.
2. FOULS VS FREE THROWS
Throughout most of the game, North Carolina had committed more fouls than Syracuse. The final tally ended up with the Tar Heels committing one more foul than the Orange. Typically in those situations, the team that committed more fouls is at a disadvantage on the free throw line as they often send the other team to the line more. However, in this game, North Carolina enjoyed an 11 free throw attempt advantage (23 to 12). Essentially, when Syracuse was fouled, it did not result in free throw attempts while North Carolina was rewarded with trips to the line when they were fouled.
In fact, this was the first game Syracuse played all season where the team that committed more fouls received more free throw attempts than the opponent. That led to a nine point advantage for North Carolina at the charity stripe. It will be interesting to see if such a statistical anomaly happens again this season.
3. STAGNANT OFFENSIVE STRETCHES
In both halves, Syracuse had a stretch where they did not score for nearly four minutes. In each stretch, Syracuse saw their lead disappear. In the first half, Syracuse went from up two to down five. In the second half, they went from up five to down six. Both stretches were marred by stagnant offense and poor shot selection. That has plagued Syracuse at different points this year, and is baffling. Syracuse goes through long periods where there is motion on offense, they move the ball extremely well and get great looks. Then they have stretches where there are forced long three pointers early in the shot clock or isolation with the rest of the players standing and watching.
Those eight minutes saw Syracuse outscored by 18 points in a game they lost by six. Going forward, Syracuse has to minimize these stretches, continue to move and share the ball offensively.
4. GUERRIER IS THE REAL DEAL
Guerrier is Syracuse's best interior player and most physical presence in the paint. They needed a big day from him against North Carolina, and got all they could have hoped for. Guerrier finished with 23 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks as he was the best player on the floor for much of the game. He does need to stay out of foul trouble, as he committed a pair of avoidable fouls in the final few minutes that ended his night early. But Guerrier is going to be on NBA Draft boards and it would be a surprise if he is gone after the season.
5. SYRACUSE IS A GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAM BUT HAS FATAL FLAW
Syracuse held North Carolina to 40% shooting overall and just 21% three point shooting. Even in the loss to Pittsburgh, the Panthers shot 35% overall and 25% from three. Syracuse is a good defensive team that forces turnovers, holds teams to shooting percentages below their average and causes problems for opposing offenses. Syracuse has nine blocks and seven steals against North Carolina. But they cannot finish possessions consistently. Teams are dominating Syracuse on the offensive glass.
Against the best teams Syracuse has played so far this season (North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Bryant), teams are averaging 18 offensive rebounds per game. That is far too many and an area Syracuse needs to improve going forward. They have an opportunity to show immediate improvement, as they next play a Pittsburgh squad that had 20 offensive rebounds and 21 second chance point in the last matchup.
