Here's how Syracuse basketball could still save its season

For Syracuse men’s basketball, March Madness starts right now. Time is running out for the Orange to salvage their season. Once again, the team is struggling in conference play and failing to build upon some promising early-season results. While the path ahead is bleak, SU still has opportunities to impress the committee.

Heading into the weekend, the Orange sit 69th in the NET rankings, 68th in KenPom and 66th in BPI. In short, they aren't even in the bubble conversation at the moment. However, that is not an impossible hurdle to clear, given the games that await the Orange. The remaining schedule is at Virginia, home vs. Cal and SMU, at Duke, home vs. UNC, at Wake Forest and Louisville, before finishing at home against Pitt.

Can Syracuse still make the tournament?

Obviously, the Orange could win the ACC tournament and earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. However, that seems incredibly unlikely as the Orange have never even reached the ACC tournament semifinal.

Instead, let’s break down what has to happen for Autry's side to have a chance at the Big Dance. Cal, SMU, Wake Forest and Pitt are all must-win games. Cal and SMU would be quality Quad 2 wins. Winning at Wake would technically be a Quad 1 win right now, as the Demon Deacons are 71st in the NET. Losing at home to Pitt would be a Quad 3 loss that would tank Syracuse’s resume.

That leaves four games against currently ranked teams. Winning at Cameron Indoor feels like a pipe dream, so let’s just leave that one alone. A rematch with UNC at the Dome feels like the most winnable of those games. Carolina’s ranking in the AP poll is a little inflated compared to other metrics. The Heels rank 27th in the NET, 30th in KenPom and 33rd in BPI. Still, a win would be a massive resume booster for ‘Cuse.

Winning at Louisville or at Virginia is certainly more plausible than winning at Duke, but those are still tough tasks. If Syracuse manages to win one of those games in addition to beating UNC, they will put themselves back on the bubble.

The ACC Tournament would likely be the deciding factor

Writing it out that way makes it seem easy, but this would require a team that is currently 13-10 to go at least 6-2 down the stretch. That would bring the Orange to a 19-12 record with wins over Tennessee, UNC and Virginia/Louisville. They would likely be 4-7 in Quad 1 games (depending on Wake Forest’s final ranking), which should be enough to get the attention of the committee. A 10-8 conference record in a much-improved ACC would definitely look strong as well.

That likely wouldn't be enough to get in alone, but it would put the Orange in a position to win a game or two in the ACC tournament to solidify its spot in the field. If SU has a 20-win campaign and a NET ranking in the top 50, it would be difficult to ignore them for an at-large bid.

Let’s be clear, this is not a likely outcome given what we have seen from this squad in recent weeks. The Orange have lost five out of six and missed opportunities earlier in the year that would have allowed such a run to be forgiven. Failing to upset Houston, dropping a home game to Hofstra and inexplicably imploding at Boston College are likely going to haunt Syracuse.

However, given all the negativity around the program at the moment, it is nice to take a more optimistic outlook. It’s all in front of Autry and his squad. Now they just have to play up to the standard they are capable of.

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