Bubble Watch: How Syracuse's NCAA Tournament Resume Stacks Up

Comparing the Orange's resume to other bubble teams.
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Syracuse had a pretty solid weekend as the bubble goes. While there were some results that were not favorable (most notably Michigan State beating Michigan), most went the Orange's way. After those outcomes, it looks like there are about 10 teams, including Syracuse, vying for four spots. Here is a look at how Syracuse stacks up with its bubble brethren. 

Note: SOS = strength of schedule (from ESPN's BPI)

SYRACUSE VS DRAKE

CategorySyracuseDrake

Record

15-8

23-4

Home

13-1

12-1

Road

2-7

9-2

Neutral

0-0

1-1

SOS

56

219

NET

49

47

KenPom

51

55

Sagarin

43

71

Quad 1

1-6

1-2

Quad 2

4-1

5-0

Quad 3

7-1

6-2

Quad 4

3-0

11-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

Loyola-Chi (NET 10)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Valpo (NET 225)

Analysis: There is no questioning Drake's record. It is better than Syracuse's, especially on the road. However, the issue with Drake's resume is strength of schedule and lack of quality wins. Essentially, Drake has one good win all season, a home victory over Loyola-Chicago. The rest of the schedule is inflated by quad three and four games. In addition, two losses to teams with below a .500 record hurt the resume further. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles this resume, but the strength of schedule, lack of quality wins and bad losses suggest Drake may be on the outside looking in. 

SYRACUSE VS UTAH STATE

CategorySyracuseUtah State

Record

15-8

17-7

Home

13-1

9-2

Road

2-7

5-3

Neutral

0-0

3-2

SOS

56

124

NET

49

48

KenPom

51

44

Sagarin

43

51

Quad 1

1-6

2-4

Quad 2

4-1

1-1

Quad 3

7-1

6-2

Quad 4

3-0

8-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

San Diego St (NET 21)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@UNLV (NET 183)

Analysis: There are a lot of similarities in these resumes. Where Utah State has an edge is road and neutral wins. Syracuse has an edge in strength of schedule and lack of bad losses. Syracuse fans should be rooting against Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament. 

SYRACUSE VS SMU

CategorySyracuseSMU

Record

15-8

11-4

Home

13-1

6-2

Road

2-7

5-2

Neutral

0-0

0-0

SOS

56

80

NET

49

56

KenPom

51

54

Sagarin

43

51

Quad 1

1-6

0-3

Quad 2

4-1

4-0

Quad 3

7-1

4-1

Quad 4

3-0

3-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

Memphis (NET 52)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

Cincinnati (NET 129)

Analysis: SMU has been hurt bad by the pandemic, playing in only 15 games so far. That has limited opportunities for quality wins, but that is of no consequence when reviewing its resume. SMU's strength of schedule is worse than Syracuse, the NET, KenPom and Sagarin are all worse, and SMU does not have a single quad one win. Syracuse has the edge here right now. Syracuse fans should hope for a quick conference tournament exit for the Mustangs. 

SYRACUSE VS SETON HALL

CategorySyracuseSeton Hall

Record

15-8

13-12

Home

13-1

7-4

Road

2-7

6-7

Neutral

0-0

0-1

SOS

56

23

NET

49

58

KenPom

51

53

Sagarin

43

49

Quad 1

1-6

3-7

Quad 2

4-1

3-4

Quad 3

7-1

5-1

Quad 4

3-0

2-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

@UConn (NET 31)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Butler (NET 119)

Analysis: Seton Hall has struggled mightily down the stretch. Once viewed as a lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Pirates have lost four in a row including two to teams with a losing record. Yes Seton Hall has three quad one wins, but also has more quad two losses than Syracuse, more losses to sub .500 teams and has four more losses overall. Seton Hall likely needs a run in the Big East Tournament to get back on the bubble. However, the committee could look favorably on the strength of schedule and six road wins.

SYRACUSE VS OLE MISS

CategorySyracuseOle Miss

Record

15-8

15-10

Home

13-1

10-4

Road

2-7

5-6

Neutral

0-0

0-0

SOS

56

70

NET

49

53

KenPom

51

50

Sagarin

43

58

Quad 1

1-6

3-4

Quad 2

4-1

5-4

Quad 3

7-1

2-2

Quad 4

3-0

5-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

Tennessee (NET 18)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Vandy (NET 109)

Analysis: Ole Miss is an interesting case. Eight wins between quad one and two, but two quad three losses and more losses overall. Syracuse has a slight edge in strength of schedule, NET and Sagarin. Syracuse fans should root for an early loss in the SEC Tournament for the Rebels. 

SYRACUSE VS XAVIER

CategorySyracuseXavier

Record

15-8

13-7

Home

13-1

11-2

Road

2-7

2-5

Neutral

0-0

0-0

SOS

56

68

NET

49

57

KenPom

51

60

Sagarin

43

55

Quad 1

1-6

1-2

Quad 2

4-1

5-5

Quad 3

7-1

4-0

Quad 4

3-0

3-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

Creighton (NET 25)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Georgetown (NET 95)

Analysis: Syracuse has a better strength of schedule, NET, KenPom and Sagarin. Both teams have the same number of quad one and two wins. Xavier has more quad two losses while Syracuse has more quad one losses. Xavier has two losses against teams with a sub .500 record, while Syracuse has one. The resumes are actually quite similar, so an early Xavier exit from the Big East Tournament would be beneficial for Syracuse. 

SYRACUSE VS BOISE STATE

CategorySyracuseBoise State

Record

15-8

17-7

Home

13-1

10-1

Road

2-7

4-6

Neutral

0-0

3-0

SOS

56

107

NET

49

44

KenPom

51

57

Sagarin

43

52

Quad 1

1-6

2-4

Quad 2

4-1

2-2

Quad 3

7-1

4-0

Quad 4

3-0

9-1

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

@BYU (NET 19)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

Fresno St (NET 186)

Analysis: Syracuse has a better strength of schedule, KenPom and Sagarin. Boise State does have one more quad one win, but Syracuse has two more quad two wins with one fewer loss. The quad four loss stands out for Boise State as well. Three neutral court wins help the Broncos. An early falter in the Mountain West Tournament would benefit the Orange. 

SYRACUSE VS COLORADO STATE

CategorySyracuseColorado State

Record

15-8

16-5

Home

13-1

9-1

Road

2-7

4-4

Neutral

0-0

3-0

SOS

56

126

NET

49

50

KenPom

51

61

Sagarin

43

67

Quad 1

1-6

2-3

Quad 2

4-1

1-2

Quad 3

7-1

3-0

Quad 4

3-0

10-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

@San Diego St (NET 21)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Nevada (NET 98)

Analysis: Colorado State's strength of schedule is the its biggest issue. The overall record is good, there are road and neutral wins, and the better best win of the two schools. Still, that strength of schedule will play a factor. As with Utah State and Boise State, Syracuse fans should want an early exit from the Mountain West Tournament. 

SYRACUSE VS SAINT LOUIS

CategorySyracuseSaint Louis

Record

15-8

14-6

Home

13-1

12-1

Road

2-7

1-4

Neutral

0-0

1-1

SOS

56

102

Net

49

44

KenPom

51

49

Sagarin

43

56

Quad 1

1-6

2-2

Quad 2

4-1

2-2

Quad 3

7-1

4-2

Quad 4

3-0

6-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

St. Bonaventure (NET 27)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@La Salle (NET 202)

Analysis: Saint Louis' strength of schedule, lack of road wins and a bad loss really hurt the resume. If Syracuse can win one game in the ACC Tournament, Saint Louis should remain behind the Orange. 

SYRACUSE VS MARYLAND

CategorySyracuseMaryland

Record

15-8

14-12

Home

13-1

10-6

Road

2-7

4-6

Neutral

0-0

0-0

SOS

56

22

NET

49

34

KenPom

51

29

Sagarin

42

32

Quad 1

1-6

4-9

Quad 2

4-1

2-3

Quad 3

7-1

5-0

Quad 4

3-0

3-0

Best Win

Clemson (NET 36)

@Illinois (NET 4)

Worst Loss

Pitt (NET 92)

@Northwestern (NET 88)

Analysis: Even with four extra losses, the rest of Maryland's resume is better than Syracuse in just about every category. Road wins, strength of schedule, NET, KenPom, Sagarin, quad one wins, etc. However, the Terps have four losses to teams with a losing record (Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State 2x). The wins are impressive, but that is still a lot of losses including some bad ones. A first game exit from the Big-10 Tournament would make things even more interesting.