Bubble Watch: How Syracuse's NCAA Tournament Resume Stacks Up
Syracuse had a pretty solid weekend as the bubble goes. While there were some results that were not favorable (most notably Michigan State beating Michigan), most went the Orange's way. After those outcomes, it looks like there are about 10 teams, including Syracuse, vying for four spots. Here is a look at how Syracuse stacks up with its bubble brethren.
Note: SOS = strength of schedule (from ESPN's BPI)
SYRACUSE VS DRAKE
| Category | Syracuse | Drake |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 23-4 |
Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
Road | 2-7 | 9-2 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
SOS | 56 | 219 |
NET | 49 | 47 |
KenPom | 51 | 55 |
Sagarin | 43 | 71 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 1-2 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 6-2 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 11-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | Loyola-Chi (NET 10) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Valpo (NET 225) |
Analysis: There is no questioning Drake's record. It is better than Syracuse's, especially on the road. However, the issue with Drake's resume is strength of schedule and lack of quality wins. Essentially, Drake has one good win all season, a home victory over Loyola-Chicago. The rest of the schedule is inflated by quad three and four games. In addition, two losses to teams with below a .500 record hurt the resume further. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles this resume, but the strength of schedule, lack of quality wins and bad losses suggest Drake may be on the outside looking in.
SYRACUSE VS UTAH STATE
| Category | Syracuse | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 17-7 |
Home | 13-1 | 9-2 |
Road | 2-7 | 5-3 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
SOS | 56 | 124 |
NET | 49 | 48 |
KenPom | 51 | 44 |
Sagarin | 43 | 51 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 2-4 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 6-2 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 8-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | San Diego St (NET 21) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @UNLV (NET 183) |
Analysis: There are a lot of similarities in these resumes. Where Utah State has an edge is road and neutral wins. Syracuse has an edge in strength of schedule and lack of bad losses. Syracuse fans should be rooting against Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
SYRACUSE VS SMU
| Category | Syracuse | SMU |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 11-4 |
Home | 13-1 | 6-2 |
Road | 2-7 | 5-2 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
SOS | 56 | 80 |
NET | 49 | 56 |
KenPom | 51 | 54 |
Sagarin | 43 | 51 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 4-1 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | Memphis (NET 52) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | Cincinnati (NET 129) |
Analysis: SMU has been hurt bad by the pandemic, playing in only 15 games so far. That has limited opportunities for quality wins, but that is of no consequence when reviewing its resume. SMU's strength of schedule is worse than Syracuse, the NET, KenPom and Sagarin are all worse, and SMU does not have a single quad one win. Syracuse has the edge here right now. Syracuse fans should hope for a quick conference tournament exit for the Mustangs.
SYRACUSE VS SETON HALL
| Category | Syracuse | Seton Hall |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 13-12 |
Home | 13-1 | 7-4 |
Road | 2-7 | 6-7 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
SOS | 56 | 23 |
NET | 49 | 58 |
KenPom | 51 | 53 |
Sagarin | 43 | 49 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 3-7 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 3-4 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 5-1 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | @UConn (NET 31) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Butler (NET 119) |
Analysis: Seton Hall has struggled mightily down the stretch. Once viewed as a lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Pirates have lost four in a row including two to teams with a losing record. Yes Seton Hall has three quad one wins, but also has more quad two losses than Syracuse, more losses to sub .500 teams and has four more losses overall. Seton Hall likely needs a run in the Big East Tournament to get back on the bubble. However, the committee could look favorably on the strength of schedule and six road wins.
SYRACUSE VS OLE MISS
| Category | Syracuse | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 15-10 |
Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
Road | 2-7 | 5-6 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
SOS | 56 | 70 |
NET | 49 | 53 |
KenPom | 51 | 50 |
Sagarin | 43 | 58 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 3-4 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 5-4 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 2-2 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | Tennessee (NET 18) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Vandy (NET 109) |
Analysis: Ole Miss is an interesting case. Eight wins between quad one and two, but two quad three losses and more losses overall. Syracuse has a slight edge in strength of schedule, NET and Sagarin. Syracuse fans should root for an early loss in the SEC Tournament for the Rebels.
SYRACUSE VS XAVIER
| Category | Syracuse | Xavier |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 13-7 |
Home | 13-1 | 11-2 |
Road | 2-7 | 2-5 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
SOS | 56 | 68 |
NET | 49 | 57 |
KenPom | 51 | 60 |
Sagarin | 43 | 55 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 1-2 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 5-5 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 4-0 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | Creighton (NET 25) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Georgetown (NET 95) |
Analysis: Syracuse has a better strength of schedule, NET, KenPom and Sagarin. Both teams have the same number of quad one and two wins. Xavier has more quad two losses while Syracuse has more quad one losses. Xavier has two losses against teams with a sub .500 record, while Syracuse has one. The resumes are actually quite similar, so an early Xavier exit from the Big East Tournament would be beneficial for Syracuse.
SYRACUSE VS BOISE STATE
| Category | Syracuse | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 17-7 |
Home | 13-1 | 10-1 |
Road | 2-7 | 4-6 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 3-0 |
SOS | 56 | 107 |
NET | 49 | 44 |
KenPom | 51 | 57 |
Sagarin | 43 | 52 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 2-4 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 4-0 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 9-1 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | @BYU (NET 19) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | Fresno St (NET 186) |
Analysis: Syracuse has a better strength of schedule, KenPom and Sagarin. Boise State does have one more quad one win, but Syracuse has two more quad two wins with one fewer loss. The quad four loss stands out for Boise State as well. Three neutral court wins help the Broncos. An early falter in the Mountain West Tournament would benefit the Orange.
SYRACUSE VS COLORADO STATE
| Category | Syracuse | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 16-5 |
Home | 13-1 | 9-1 |
Road | 2-7 | 4-4 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 3-0 |
SOS | 56 | 126 |
NET | 49 | 50 |
KenPom | 51 | 61 |
Sagarin | 43 | 67 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 2-3 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 3-0 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 10-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | @San Diego St (NET 21) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Nevada (NET 98) |
Analysis: Colorado State's strength of schedule is the its biggest issue. The overall record is good, there are road and neutral wins, and the better best win of the two schools. Still, that strength of schedule will play a factor. As with Utah State and Boise State, Syracuse fans should want an early exit from the Mountain West Tournament.
SYRACUSE VS SAINT LOUIS
| Category | Syracuse | Saint Louis |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 14-6 |
Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
Road | 2-7 | 1-4 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
SOS | 56 | 102 |
Net | 49 | 44 |
KenPom | 51 | 49 |
Sagarin | 43 | 56 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 2-2 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 4-2 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | St. Bonaventure (NET 27) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @La Salle (NET 202) |
Analysis: Saint Louis' strength of schedule, lack of road wins and a bad loss really hurt the resume. If Syracuse can win one game in the ACC Tournament, Saint Louis should remain behind the Orange.
SYRACUSE VS MARYLAND
| Category | Syracuse | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
Record | 15-8 | 14-12 |
Home | 13-1 | 10-6 |
Road | 2-7 | 4-6 |
Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
SOS | 56 | 22 |
NET | 49 | 34 |
KenPom | 51 | 29 |
Sagarin | 42 | 32 |
Quad 1 | 1-6 | 4-9 |
Quad 2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Quad 3 | 7-1 | 5-0 |
Quad 4 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
Best Win | Clemson (NET 36) | @Illinois (NET 4) |
Worst Loss | Pitt (NET 92) | @Northwestern (NET 88) |
Analysis: Even with four extra losses, the rest of Maryland's resume is better than Syracuse in just about every category. Road wins, strength of schedule, NET, KenPom, Sagarin, quad one wins, etc. However, the Terps have four losses to teams with a losing record (Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State 2x). The wins are impressive, but that is still a lot of losses including some bad ones. A first game exit from the Big-10 Tournament would make things even more interesting.
