How will Syracuse basketball divide its minutes?

Last month, former Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim guested on a local sports radio show and – SURPRISE! – made a few comments that ruffled some feathers, including a couple regarding the incoming basketball recruiting class:

“All these young guys need some time.”

“The young guys, I think, can help, but you can’t win. Kiyan Anthony’s good, Sadiq White’s good, Fennell’s good. You can’t win with those guys.”

Here’s the thing: he’s making a good point. Recruiting rankings for the incoming freshmen players mean as much this coming season as every Syracuse incoming freshman student’s SAT score. It helped them get here, but they mean nothing moving forward.

Established veterans returning

SU has some accomplished veterans standing in the way of those freshmen getting minutes. J.J. Starling received honorable mention All-ACC honors last season while Naithan George led the conference in assists.

Donnie Freeman flashed upside as a freshman while the incoming Nate Kingz shot 44.6 from 3-point range at Oregon State. Centers William Kyle III and Ibrahim Souare also transferred into the program from power conference schools.

So, it is already a little crowded. How much playing time will be available for those “young guys”? There are 200 minutes of playing time in a regulation game, so we can estimate who gets how many minutes.

Breaking down anticipated minutes of the veterans

In the backcourt, Starling has played 34.5 minutes per game over the last two seasons and George played 35.6 minutes per game at Georgia Tech last season. Figure they match those marks with Starling playing 34 minutes a game and George 36.

Kingz did not bring his 3-point marksmanship to Syracuse to not play after getting 30.3 minutes per game as a starter. Pencil him in for the same 30 minutes.

Freeman averaged 25.5 minutes as a freshman, so we will give him a little increase, despite bumping and banging at power forward. Call it 29 minutes per game, for a total 129 of the 200 minutes (64.5 percent) going to the top four.

Last season’s top four players in minutes (Starling, Eddie Lampkin, Jaquan Carlos, Freeman) ate up 118.7 minutes per game. The two previous seasons, it was 125.1 minutes (Starling, Judah Mintz, Maliq Brown, Chris Bell) and 122.8 minutes (Joe Girard III, Mintz, Jesse Edwards, Benny Williams) spread among the top four.

However, in the decade prior, the top four at Syracuse played at least 76.4 percent of available minutes. In other words, it is likely Freeman, George, Kingz, and Starling will play even more than those collective 129 minutes per game.

How will the minutes be spread among the centers?

Those four also need a center. Plan on Kyle and Souare combining for 36 minutes per game (the remaining four minutes go to Freeman in smaller lineups). In any case, six players are playing 165 of 200 minutes, leaving 35 for the rest of the roster.

Top recruit White gets four minutes next to Freeman in those small lineups, plus the other 11 when Freeman is on the bench, for 15 per game. Now, only 20 minutes per game are free.

Move Starling to the point when George sits for four minutes per game, leaving ten at shooting guard and ten more at forward. For now, Anthony and Tyler Betsey each get ten.

That's nine. Who else?

That’s nine guys playing, including two freshmen, but no Fennell, Bryce Zephir, Aaron Womack, or Tiefing Diawara.

If Fennell gets some burn or Zephir some defensive effort, that’s fine, but you have to take those minutes away from someone else. While it seems easiest to steal them from the top guys, here is another note about the SU roster having a top-heavy minute distribution:

Of the last six Orange teams to make the NCAA Tournament, the top four players played at least 75.3 percent of the available minutes. That is just under 151 of the 200 available minutes. There may be some correlation between playing your best players and winning games.

Will SU use a deep bench?

Yes, those teams played zone, allowing for some “rest” on the floor. Yes, head coach Adrian Autry wants to play more uptempo, which would suggest using fresh bodies. It is unknown if they can, as the Orange spent a lot of time last year taking the ball out of the net on defense, making it harder to run.

Syracuse is expected to be a bubble team, meaning playing time will likely lean toward its best, most experienced players in an effort to win games. With SU’s top players playing the same positions as the top incoming freshmen, the youngsters are in line for spending a lot of time watching their teammates.

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