Statistical Analysis: Syracuse's Second Half Woes

Syracuse basketball lost to Miami 88-87 despite holding a 14 point lead at halftime. Holding a halftime lead is not new for the Orange. Syracuse has done that in nine of its 14 games. But of those nine, it has lost four of those games. We took a deeper dive into the numbers to see if there were any trends. There is a trend. Syracuse basketball has a second half problem. Especially in losses.

In Syracuse's 14 games, it has performed better in the second half only four times (Drexel, Florida State, Brown, Cornell). The other 10, it performed worse. Better or worse how? Scoring margin, for one. But we also looked at Syracuse's shooting percentage as well as opponents' shooting percentage in each half. The numbers speak for themselves.

Category	First Half	Second Half
Syracuse Points	37.9	39.3
Opponents' Points	32.4	42.5
Scoring Margin	5.5	-3.2
Syracuse FG%	44.9%	46.9%
Syracuse 3PT%	40.6%	36.7%
Opponents' FG%	37.4%	46.7%
Opponents' 3PT%	31.0%	41.9%

Note: The numbers in the table above include only the second half for Indiana, not the overtime periods.

Syracuse is outscoring opponents by more than five points per game in the first halves of games but being outscored by more than three points per game in second halves. The shooting percentages also support worse play after halftime. While Syracuse's overall shooting percentage actually goes up slightly from the first to the second half, three point shooting drops. That is not where the real eye opening numbers are, however.

Opponents' shooting percentage differences are the biggest issue, which points directly to Syracuse's defensive performances. Teams are shooting 9% better overall and nearly 11% better from three point range after halftime. That is why teams are scoring 10 points more on average in the second halves of games compared to the first.

The numbers show even more drastic variances in just the losses. Here is the same comparison in Syracuse's seven defeats.

Category	First Half	Second Half
Syracuse Points	36.1	34.1
Opponents' Points	33.6	47.0
Scoring Margin	2.5	-12.9
Syracuse FG%	42.6%	37.7%
Syracuse 3PT%	40.5%	30.1%
Opponents' FG%	36.1%	53.2%
Opponents' 3PT%	31.7%	55.1%

Syracuse is outscoring teams by two and a half points per first half in its losses, but is being outscored by 13 per second half. Syracuse's shooting percentage overall drops slightly, but three point shooting takes a big hit dropping from 40.5% to 30.1%. Opponent's, however, see dramatic improvements on offense. Teams are scoring over 13 more points per second half compared to the first, while shooting 17% better overall and 23% better from three point range. Those are significant differences that have directly led to Syracuse's losses.