Syracuse's NCAA Tournament Hopes are Not Dead Yet
Monday night's loss at Duke was a blow to Syracuse's NCAA Tournament resume. There is no question about that. It was a golden opportunity for the Orange to pick up a quadrant one win, the thing that is most glaringly missing from the resume. The silver lining is that Syracuse still has a chance to add that, but now has no margin for error.
Syracuse needs quad one wins. It is as simple as that. The resume currently has none, and that is not enough to get them in. Most projections have Syracuse in the next four out, and losing at Duke will either keep them there or move them down a bit. Still, all hope is not lost.
For those unfamiliar, a quad one win is a home win over a team with a NET ranking in the top 30 or a road win over a team with a NET ranking in the top 75.
Syracuse plays at Georgia Tech on Saturday in another quad one opportunity. Georgia Tech sits 49th and does not figure to drop below 75th. If Syracuse picks up that win and is able to beat North Carolina at home on Monday, that would be two huge boosts to its NCAA Tournament chances. The Tar Heels currently sit 33rd in NET rankings. If they move up at least three spots, which will happen if they win their next two games including beating Florida State, that becomes another quad one win.
Should Syracuse add two quadrant one wins in those two games, there actually is an opportunity for a third without even playing another. Virginia Tech, who Syracuse beat at home by 18 in January, is currently 36th in NET. They have three home games against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Louisville as well as a road game at NC State to end their season. Wins in all four of those games likely pushes their NET above 30, giving Syracuse another quad one win.
Syracuse’s win at NC State is also close to becoming a quad one win. NC State is 80th in NET and needs to crack the top 75 to count in quad one. NC State has four games left: at Virginia, vs Pittsburgh, at Notre Dame and at home against Virginia Tech. Wins in two or three of those games could push them up enough.
Syracuse's NET ranking dropped from 47 to 54 after losing to Duke. That would jump back into the 50 with wins in the next two games.
If Syracuse can follow that up with a win in the ACC Tournament, even if they fall against one of the top tier teams in the league in the following game, Syracuse would still have a legitimate case. And there is also going to be a makeup game next week. We do not know who that will be yet, but Clemson seems to be the favorite. If it is, that would not be a quadrant one win as Clemson is currently 39th in NET, but it would be a quality quad two win to further bolster the resume.
A resume that includes a record of 17-8 (11-7), a NET in the top 50 with four quad one wins is compelling.
Now some of that also depends on what other bubble teams do. And Syracuse put themselves in a position where it needs others to perform specific ways to bolster their own resume. All Syracuse can worry about, for now, is winning games. Win the next two games and see how everything else plays out.
