Syracuse Orange v. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2/28/26 Prediction and Preview

On Saturday evening, the Orange head down to Winston-Salem, North Carolina to take on Wake Forest. With Syracuse’s tournament chances out of the picture, their focus is now shifted to maintaining their spot in the ACC Tournament. Wake Forest (14-14, 5-10 ACC) and Syracuse (15-13, 6-9) have a two and three game cushion, respectively, for their ACC Tourney spots.

The Demon Deacons are coming into this game looking to stop their current two-game slide, and are coming off a disappointing loss at Boston College. Wake seems to be favorites in this matchup according to KenPom with a 64 percent chance to win. This matchup will be a great opportunity for both teams to fine-tune some things as we head towards the ACC Tournament.

Here are a few keys to the game.

The Engine of the Demon Deacons’ Offense Can Be Unreliable

Sophomore wing Juke Harris is a phenomenal, at times unstoppable, offensive talent. However, his immense scoring output has not been indicative of the team's overall offensive success. The most recent example came on Wednesday in Chestnut Hill, as Harris put up 38 points on an effective rate in a game where the Deacons fell to one of the worst teams in the ACC.

Harris is second in the ACC in points (21.7 ppg), has a 123.9 Ortg, and has a usage rate of 29 percent. Despite these figures, Wake Forest sits at the middle-to-back of the pack in nearly all offensive metrics, such as Ortg where Wake is 10th in the ACC. This disconnect is their main issue because teams can allow Harris to get his points and do his thing, but are able to neutralize everyone else. This is not a good formula down the stretch of games.

The Makeup of Wake’s Offense Provides a Favorable Matchup for the Orange

Despite being a subpar defensive team overall, the Orange find themselves at an advantage against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is a high volume 3-point shooting team, 46 percent of their shots come from beyond the arc as well as 37 percent of their total points.

SU has disallowed teams to beat them from the perimeter allowing for only 27 percent of points against to come from outside the arc. The trade off is that they have been one of the worst interior defenses this season, but this should not hurt them all too much as Wake is not a great mid-range shooting team.

Wake Forest’s Defensive Demons Set the Table for the Orange Offense

Wake Forest has a very fragile defense. They allow 115.9 points per 100 possessions, good for 16th in the ACC. Personnel-wise, they have not had the infrastructure to fix these issues all season. Their most glaring pitfall is they allow opponents to rebound 34.2 percent of their missed shots, the worst mark in the ACC.

Syracuse scores 55 percent of their points from 2 (second in ACC) on an effective 54% 2p%. The Orange with William Kyle III should look to create and execute on these potential second-chance opportunities.

Wake allows teams to shoot a bounty of effective looks, as they allow the 3rd worst Efg% against in the ACC. Syracuse, on the other hand is an above average ACC team in effective field goal percentage at 53.3 percent.

Moreover, Wake has a weak perimeter game, and while this is not necessarily a killer for them as SU is not a great 3-point shooting team, it may allow for opportunities SU does not typically seek out.

Finally, Wake is not a foul disciplined team. Their defense can get spread thin fairly easily which forces defenders out of position which coincides with more fouls. WF allows the 21 FTA per game, a high mark and opportunity for Syracuse to pick up points.

For Syracuse’s offense to be successful in this game they need to pound and overwhelm the paint and the offensive glass. Attack the rim, get fouled, get second opportunities and convert.

I'm going against the metrics here, and predicting an 80-70 Syracuse victory.

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