Pinpointing the decline in Syracuse football's rushing attack

It has been an underwhelming season for Syracuse running the football. The Orange ranks 117th nationally in rushing yards per game and 123rd in yards per carry. Starting a backup quarterback would be a great time for the running game to step up, but that has not been the case. Was LeQuint Allen really that much better than Yasin Willis and Will Nixon? The answer might actually surprise you.

Believe it or not, the ground game actually hasn’t changed much. Stripping out lost rushing yards for quarterback sacks (still one of the most head scratching things the NCAA does, and that is saying something), Syracuse is averaging 131.4 yards per game on the ground on 31 carries per game, which averages out to 4.2 yards per carry. In 2024, excluding the bowl game, the Orange averaged 113.7 yards per game on 29 carries per game, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.

‘Cuse seems to actually be running the ball better this year than the year before. It’s not a huge difference, but picking up an extra 0.3 yards per carry adds up over time.

Is it the offensive line?

But the offensive line plays a major role in all of that, so how much are they contributing to the run game? This is almost a completely new group up front. Syracuse as a team is averaging 2.81 yards per carry after contact, according to PFF. That would mean the offensive line is creating 1.43 yards per carry before contact.

Comparing that to last year, the Orange only averaged 2.71 yards per carry after contact, meaning the offensive line was creating just 1.21 yards per carry before contact. Again, this is just one way to measure things. Syracuse players are making it 0.22 yards further down the field this season before contact.

Is it the new QB?

Let’s dig even deeper, because the Orange offense has changed a lot since Rickie Collins took over. The passing attack has dipped in production, but Collins brings a much bigger rushing threat than either Steve Angeli did this year or Kyle McCord did last year. On designed run plays, meaning we strip out scrambles on called pass plays, Syracuse is averaging 103.1 yards per game this season. A slight dip from the 105.4 yards per game in 2024, but not a significant difference.

Clearly, Collins has provided a boost to the ground game. That’s not the only difference, though. Allen was a better player than Willis and Nixon. The now Jacksonville Jaguar essentially combines the skill sets of Syracuse’s backfield duo. Willis is a slightly more powerful, straight-line runner, whereas Allen was shiftier and made people miss. The difference is that he was an elite receiving back, catching 61 balls for 484 yards. Those marks were tied for first and third, respectively, in the nation last year. Nixon is a competent receiver, but not on the same level as Allen.

The real takeaway

In short, Allen was a tough player to replace, but Willis and Nixon were supposed to share the load. Unfortunately, Nixon has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and Willis has dropped three passes on 15 targets this season.

The real takeaway from diving into the data is that Syracuse struggles to generate explosive plays on the ground. Allen accounted for the Orange’s longest rush of the year in 2024, which was just 30 yards. That was the shortest longest run in the nation. Willis’ longest run of the season went for 41, coming this past Saturday at Georgia Tech. An improvement, but that still puts the Orange in the bottom 25 nationally for longest runs on the year. ‘Cuse had just 13 runs of over 15 yards last year and has only seven this season.

The bottom line: Syracuse’s run game is lackluster at best, but this is not a new problem. Jeff Nixon really needs to spend some time with his staff this offseason designing a more effective run scheme, or at least do a better job at identifying the athletes they need to execute it at a higher level.

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