The ACC's highest ranked football team could miss the CFP three years running

While Miami sits home, again, the ACC better hope Virginia beats Duke in the league's championship game, or the ACC may be MIA from the CFP.

Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; ACC commissioner Jim Phillips in attendance as the Pittsburgh Panthers host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips and his staff have been busy this week preparing for the ACC Football Championship game at Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium, but privately they have to be rooting for Virginia to defeat Duke Saturday night (8:00 p.m., ET / ABC) on the field.

The ACC football championship game, along with the legacy men's basketball tournament, are the two marquee events the conference stages in the city it now calls home (basketball will still be played in Greensboro in some seasons). But the tie-breaker that brought a five-loss Duke team to the event perhaps helped sell a few more seats from near-by Blue Devils fans, but a Duke upset win will not help the conference's CFP dilemma.

That's right. Duke, instead of Miami, or SMU, or Pitt, or Georgia Tech is facing the Cavaliers because the records of its conference opponents this season, were better than that of the other four teams' ACC opponents results this year. There was such a second place logjam, that it required going far down the list of tie-breaking protocol.

A need to change the ACC tie-breaking formula

Big super-conferences today have completely lost their luster because there are so many teams in each league, and it varies year to year in pre-determined rotations what matchups will take place. (Syracuse has played Miami just three times since joining the ACC in 2013.)

If head-to-head matchups don't break ties in the standings, then it certainly makes sense at looking next at the highest ranked conference team to face the first-place team, which in 2025 would be Miami. The Hurricanes are No. 12 this week, and Virginia is No. 17, and that would have simplified matters.

Of course, last season it was Syracuse that played a part in this mayhem. The Orange knocking off the 'Canes in the Dome sent Clemson to face SMU in the ACC championship, and with a Clemson upset, both teams squeaked into the 12-team bracket, leaving a 10-2 Miami team the odd ACC team out of the CFP.

In 2023 you will remember, it was a 13-0 Florida State team denied a berth in the final four team CFP field, the committee concerned about the team losing its starting quarterback for the postseason games.

This year, even though Miami is sitting this week at No. 12 in the CFP rankings, one of those 12 spots goes to the Group of Five champion (Tulane, North Texas, James Madison). Compounding the problem is that Miami beat Notre Dame in September, yet the Irish are ranked No, 10 in the CFP, and have the added advantage of not even having to play in a conference championship game to qualify for consideration.

Crazy to think about with all the money involved, but If Duke beats Virginia, it is very likely that while the American or Sun Belt Conferences will have a team in the CFP, the ACC could be potentially sweating out the reveal this Sunday (12:00 p.m. ET / ESPN).

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