Three Reasons Syracuse Will Make a Bowl Game, Three Reasons They Will Not
The Orange is looking for back to back bowl appearances for the first time in a decade.
Awe, it is, in fact, that time of the year again. T-shirts and shorts are still wearable, the activity and buzz on campus is picking up with classes beginning in less than a week, and your Syracuse football team is closing the curtains on their 2023 iteration of fall camp. After an action-packed offseason that had fans and the community at-large waiting with bated breath concerning LeQuint Allen’s status, as well as several last-minute additions that could prove to be crucial, the dust seems to have settled a bit with what the roster will look like headed to the first game. As we’ve seen, the peaks and valleys with this team can be extreme, especially once ACC play hits. With that knowledge, let's cover three reasons why this Orange team could be repeat bowl eligibility status this year, which could do a lot of in terms of job security for one Dino Babers, as well as three reasons that could get in the way of a second straight winning season and turn the heat up even more for the cushions of Baber’s already lukewarm seat.
REASONS THEY WILL
- Garrett Shrader takes a big jump (as expected)
Shrader was the definition of an enigma last year, looking like one of college football's most lethal dual-threat quarterbacks in September and October, highlighted by being named to Davey O’Brien Award Midseason Watch List after his five touchdown performance vs. UConn. As ACC play hit, however, his play took a sharp nosedive, in no small part to injuries. Regardless, your starting quarterback completing a woeful 31% of his passes during the meat of conference play (Notre Dame, FSU, and Wake Forest) simply cannot happen. Shrader is one of the most talented and experienced quarterbacks in the ACC this year, and with no Sean Tucker in the backfield, the onus is going to fall on him for SU to have an explosive offense. Shrader’s still not quite up to 100% health-wise, but I like the approach he has taken with his surgically-repaired elbow, testing the limits of it and letting him get stack reps with his receiving corp while also being intentional about his pitch count and acknowledging that they want to keep him healthy for the more grueling part of the year. Retaining Beck on staff is a huge win not only for him and his comfortability running the offense, but also helping the weapons around him be comfortable with the playbook and their roles within the offense. We do not know quite yet who can be that consistent second threat next to Oronde Gadsden, but there is no lack of quality options between Isaiah Jones, Damien Alford, D’Marcus Adams, and Trebor Pena. - The schedule
You can only play the games you have in front of you, and those games were not too kind to SU towards the back half of the season in 2022. They dodged a decent-sized bullet facing a ranked NC State team without their starting quarterback, but even outside of that you started the season with three of the first four games that were coin flips going into the season (Louisville, Purdue, UVA) and that brutal October-November stretch that included three ranked teams. This year, you’ve still got your three week’s stretch of murder’s row with Clemson, UNC, and FSU. Outside of that, there are nine games that look decently winnable. Legendary college football guru and prognosticator Phil Steele had SU with the 12th-hardest schedule last year going into last season, but ranks the SOS as only 67th-hardest going into this year. That, combined with only one true toss-up game in the first four (at Purdue) giving this team a bit more of a ramp and warmup into conference play should bold well. - The experience (of pain)
In the age of the transfer portal, Syracuse did about as well as you can hope, bringing back a whopping seven starters on defense as well keeping their starting quarterback and best skill position player. Experience matters now more than ever in college football, and you have a litany of guys that experienced the rollercoaster ride of a season that was last year. That should allow Syracuse to be able to identify and avoid falling into the same pattern as last year. Specifically on defense, you have guy like Caleb Okechukwu and Kevon Darton that have been on campus for four to five years as, guys like Isaiah Johnson playing his fifth year of college football. Even guys like Stefon Thompson, Marlowe Wax, and Jason Simmons with multiple years of starting experience coming in. This iteration of SU football, especially the defense, should have a ton of poise this year and more than likely will not encounter anything they have not seen before.
REASONS THEY WON’T
- Pass rush woes
For all the the things that this defense does have, the one thing that it seems to be sorely missing is some speed and length off the edge. The 3-3-5 already is not the best fit for those bendy, slim-framed EDGE types that would have a harder time holding up against the run, but with football becoming more and more pass-happy, you have to have somebody on your defense that can consistently put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The losses of Steve Linton and Jatius Geer (hey transfer portal!) leaves SU without proven speed at the EDGE spot, and between those two and Mikel Jones now being a Los Angeles Charger, that is three of your top five guys in sacks last year out the door. Caleb Okechukwu lead the team with seven last year, but he’s still a bit more of a DT/DE hybrid that wins with power and excels more at beating guards rather than tackles. Plus, with Terry Lockett working his way back from his season-ending knee injury, Okechukwu could be subject to more double teams and slide protection. - Run game worries
One of the biggest reasons why I was not a fan of Garrett Shrader being RB2 and ending up with over 150 carries last year was because you had a great back behind him in Sean Tucker. Also, despite Shrader’s legs being some of the most dynamic in the ACC, he took a lot of hits and tucked and ran a bit too much for my liking to only average three yards a carry. Shrader’s legs and ability to keep this offense multi-dimensional would be slightly more welcome with no Tucker, but without Tucker as a fallback, Shrader’s health will be infinitely more important than last year. LeQuint Allen is an exciting back that provided lots of reasons for optimism with his Pinstripe Bowl performance, but it remains to be seen how he will handle being a bell-cow back with those amount of carries including if he can do it between the tackles. Between Shrader needing to pick his spots more, and LeQuint needing to prove that he can consistently handle 15-20 carries, I think that this passing attack with OG and Co. needs to be the straw that stirs the drink, with the run game being the additive, until it can prove to be something that can consistently move the chains. - O-Line…Oh My
Speaking of the run game, another reason why I am not confident about relying on it this year is because some of the erratic nature of the offensive line group so far. Losing a cornerstone like Matt Bergeron is obviously going to drop the level of play and consistency, and while Enriquez Cruz has looked fine as his replacement, he cannot be counted on to consistently dominate his matchup like Berg. Outside of that, Kalan Ellis, who I would have went with as your second best lineman last year, did not practice the two days I was out there last week and was not listed as a projected starter by syracuse.com’s Emily Leiker. So that is an interesting situation to monitor. Big General J’Onre Reed has been a bright spot in camp working at center, competing with Josh Ilaoa, a guy that has not seen a ton of game time. David Wohlabaugh is an SEC transfer that should be plug in play. However, more than any other position in football and maybe in sports, establishing cohesion and flow with the group is imperative, and I do not see a lot of that from this O-Line group less than two weeks out. They have some decent parts, but it is a dramatic shift from last year, going from Ellis and Bergeron being runaway strengths for this unit last year, to now seemingly nothing but question marks.
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