Predicting The 2023 College Baseball Super Regionals
The opening round of the NCAA baseball tournament was a wild one. A four seed, Oral Roberts, advanced and seven regional hosts failed to make it to the next round. Up next is the most exciting round of the tournament, the Super Regionals. Two Supers will be played between two non-hosts (a rarity to even have one) and No. 2 seed TCU hosts another.
Last round, we predicted 10 of the 16 Regionals correctly – a victory in our eyes – so let's dive right back in and project some Super Regionals winners.
The Super Regional round begins Friday, June 9 and concludes Monday, June 12. Eight coveted spots in the College World Series are up for grabs.
Winston-Salem Super Regional: No. 16 Alabama at No. 1 Wake Forest
Deep rotations matter when it comes to double-elimination style tournaments like the Regionals and the College World Series. However, in a best-of-three series, having three strong starting pitchers is the name of the game.
Wake Forest has the best trio of starters in the country by a comfortable margin: Rhett Lowder, Josh Hartle, and Sean Sullivan. Those three arms racked up a ridiculous 346 strikeouts so far this season, propelling Wake to 50 wins. That kind of firepower on the mound is simply too much to ignore.
While the Super Regionals typically present shocking upsets (see: Notre Dame over No. 1 Tennessee just last year), I'd be throwing darts blindly if I wanted to choose Alabama here. The Tide are hot, despite losing their head coach late in the season, and an upset isn't out of the realm of possibility, but logic here tells me to go with the Demon Deacons.
The pick: Wake Forest
Gainesville Super Regional: No. 15 South Carolina at No. 2 Florida
On paper, Florida appears to be the better team playing better baseball right now. Their pitching staff easily disposed of the hot bats of Texas Tech in the Regional final and the Gators walked through that round.
However, baseball isn't played on paper and South Carolina swept Florida in Columbia back in April. The Gamecocks don't lack in hitting – though Florida has the better overall lineup – and are arguably better on the mound. Overall, South Carolina just counters what Florida likes to do well.
The series travels to Gainesville and the not-so-friendly confines of Condron Family Ballpark. At home, the Gators are 33-6 on the year and South Carolina is 10-10 on the road. This pick is about looking forward, not back.
The pick: Florida
Fort Worth Super Regional: No. 14 Indiana State at TCU
There's a huge difference playing this series in Terre Haute and in Fort Worth. TCU lucked out when Indiana State could not host the Super Regional.
The college baseball postseason is about momentum and nobody has more of it right now than TCU. The Frogs have won 15 of their last 16 games, including a Big 12 Championship and a victory in the Fayetteville Regional. Offensively, they are on fire, scoring at least 12 runs in their last four games, including 20 in the penultimate game of the regional round.
However, Indiana State wins out in the three starters column. Connor Fenlong tossed four complete game shutouts this season, Matt Jachec adds another three complete games (one shutout), and Lane Miller leads the team in ERA (2.77) and is 7-0 on the year. That's a big advantage over TCU's rotation.
But, again, home field advantage and momentum matter the most here.
The pick: TCU
Hattiesburg Super Regional: Tennessee at Southern Miss
Despite the perception of a disappointing season for preseason-favorite Tennessee, the Vols are 41-19 and ranked 12th in RPI – ahead of Southern Miss. The NCAA chose to award Hattiesburg with the Super Regional hosting, to the dismay of Tennessee.
Only Wake Forest has a better field-independent pitching (FIP) number than Tennessee in this tournament and Southern Miss has struggled this season at the plate. Another "on paper" scenario where the Vols appear to be the better team.
However, Southern Miss' head coach Scott Berry – extremely revered in Hattiesburg – is hanging it up at the end of the season after collecting 500 wins. That kind of team motivation to end his career in Omaha is too strong to ignore. Plus, home field advantage.
The pick: Southern Miss
Baton Rouge Super Regional: No. 12 Kentucky at No. 5 LSU
From the start, it's pretty widely regarded that LSU was severely underseeded. An early exit from the SEC tournament took them from a possible No. 1 or No. 2 seed and knocked them down to No. 5; don't let that number fool you – LSU is one of the top teams in the tournament.
Starter Paul Skenes is almost an automatic victory for LSU, having tossed 179 strikeouts in just 99.1 innings. Operating under the assumption that Skenes clinches Game 1 for the Tigers, Kentucky must win back-to-back road games at The Box, a difficult task to say the least.
Kentucky might be No. 2 in RPI, but they've got a near David-and-Goliath situation here. Force LSU to dig into their bullpen early, and the Wildcats stand a chance; but let LSU's starters go deep into games, and Kentucky is going to exit this round.
The pick: LSU
Charlottesville Super Regional: Duke at No. 6 Virginia
Virginia is 34-4 at home this season. Duke happened to hand Virginia two of those four losses earlier this year. The Blue Devils have the added benefit of having the shortest trip for a Super Regional, just three hours north of their campus. (Compare that to Oral Roberts, who travels nearly 2,000 miles to Eugene, Oregon.)
Taking two of three at UVA was impressive enough, but it required a Game 1 where Duke scored 17 runs. Not impossible, but a tough ask to repeat that performance against a Cavaliers rotation that's got four very strong starters to work with.
Duke's rotation is deeper than Virginia's, but in this round, it's about the starters. If we're betting on starters, I'm betting on Virginia.
The pick: Virginia
Eugene Super Regional: Oral Roberts at Oregon
Oregon's resume coming into the tournament was fairly weak. They rank second-to-last in RPI among the remaining teams ahead of only (spoiler) Oral Roberts. However, the Ducks have undeniable momentum, as they ran through the Pac-12 Tournament and chased Vanderbilt off their own regional.
Oral Roberts has their fair share of momentum, owning the nation's longest winning streak at 21 games. Despite their 62nd ranking in RPI, ORU cannot be dismissed as a non-threat.
Both teams have the making of a Cinderella this postseason – much like Ole Miss and Oklahoma last year – but Oral Roberts has to travel over 1,950 miles to Oregon. In the Stillwater Regional, they had the benefit of heading an hour west down Route 51.
The pick: Oregon
Stanford Super Regional: Texas at No. 8 Stanford
This is Stanford's fourth consecutive time hosting a Super Regional; the three previous times, the Cardinal made it to Omaha. They also go from one Texas rival to another after edging out Texas A&M in their Regional round. The biggest advantage Stanford has here is that they stay home while Texas travels from Miami to the Bay Area in the longest turnaround haul of any team this tournament.
Texas caught fire just early and was shockingly bounced from the Big 12 Tournament in two games. While they were able to turn it around against Miami, they have a tougher task at hand this time around.
Stanford has the rest advantage, home field advantage, and the better three-man starting rotation.
The pick: Stanford
Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!
Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or in the Apple App Store.