Baseball: TCU Visits Oklahoma State For Critical Big 12 Series
Following a 13-0 start to the season, starting 1-5 in Big 12 play is just shy of worse-case scenario for the #18 TCU Horned Frogs (16-5, 1-5 Big 12). They still hold onto a top-25 ranking at D1Baseball, but it's tough to sell the Frogs as a top-25 program today. This weekend, TCU heads up to Stillwater to play the Oklahoma State Cowboys (13-8, 1-2), a team also at a desperate crux in the early season. The losing team in this series at best carries a .250 record in the Big 12 and at worst, .111.
There's a lot of meat left on the Big 12 schedule for both teams, but starting 2-7 (or 1-8) puts TCU in a position that doesn't afford them much room, if any, throughout the remainder of the season. Despite only being Week 6, this is a must-win series.
The series kicks off Friday night at 6:00 p.m. Saturday's first pitch comes at 6:00 p.m., as well, and Sunday's finale begins at 1:00 p.m. All games will be streamed on ESPN+, broadcast on 88.7 FM KTCU, and played in O'Brate Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
Loser Leaves Town
I mean this more or less literally, since TCU heads back to Fort Worth following this series and Oklahoma State begins a four-game road trip.
But whoever suffers two losses this weekend has a lot of ground to cover in the Big 12 standings. A series loss would be less dire for Oklahoma State, who's only played one conference series thus far. 2-4 is suboptimal, but not a death knell to the 2024 season. On the other hand, 2-7 digs TCU in a deep hole. Even at best – should the Frogs sweep the Pokes – they climb to 4-5, still sub-.500.
TCU still has series against Texas Tech and Kansas State, plus a road series at Texas. The most difficult stretch of its schedule is likely still ahead.
Should the Horned Frogs return to Fort Worth with a pair of losses from this weekend, new conversations will be had.
Previewing The Pokes
There's really two teams to preview this weekend. Oklahoma State's played a Jekyll-and-Hyde game this year, toppling Arkansas 2-1, Sam Houston State 19-2, Oklahoma 14-5, and UCF 16-10. They also dropped two of three to the Bearkats, scoring just three total runs. Oregon State crushed them 8-1, DBU 14-4, Mercer 4-1, and UCF took two of those games.
When the offense clicks, few teams have the batting prowess Oklahoma State has. But they've also completely disappeared for stretches of games. So far, the Pokes play their best ball on Sundays and weeknights. They're just 5-5 on Fridays and Saturdays – not usually to fault of those starting pitchers – and 8-3 the other days. Utah Tech is the only unranked non-Friday or Saturday loss.
Power isn't the Pokes' forte this season. However, almost the entire lineup is at least somewhat capable of hitting home runs. Junior first baseman Colin Brueggemann leads the team with five round-trippers while another seven starters have three. No one player is going to overwhelm TCU's pitching staff with pro-level power, but everyone this weekend will be a threat to knock one over the wall.
Two-way player Carson Benge is perhaps the toughest out in the order. The sophomore is batting .361 and has drawn far more walks (17) than times he's struck out (12). Benge leads the team with 30 hits and is also the biggest threat on the base path; he has five steals on the season, but also has been thrown out four times.
Outfielder Zach Ehrhard also has drawn more walks (14) than times struck out (10), although his .253 average is much more modest. But Ehrhard is an efficient batter, as nine of his 21 hits went for extra bases (eight doubles, one home run).
Pitching Matchups
Senior Sam Garcia (2-2, 4.56 ERA) starts on the mound Friday nights for Oklahoma State. The senior takes a no-nonsense approach to his outings, walking just five batters in 23.2 innings this year. Garcia throws strikes, for better or for worse. On the season, he's rung up 32 batters, but also gave up four earned runs in four innings in his last outing.
The approach for Friday: swing the bat. Garcia is going to log strikeouts, but he'll also give up plenty of work.
Ace Brian Holiday (1-1, 1.83) suits up Saturday. When previewing TCU's opponents, I like to give credit where credit is due without being sensational. But we need to be transparent here: Holiday is a problem.
The junior righty is an all-conference caliber arm and perhaps a contender for All-American nods. In his last outing, Holiday struck out 13. He's allowed seven total earned runs in 34.1 innings, rung up a team-high 37 batters, and allows a paltry .178 batting average. Holiday registered these numbers against the likes of Arkansas and UCF, hardly meatball competition.
Junior Janzen Keisel (2-1, 4.26) starts the series finale Sunday. He's worked the fewest innings of the starting rotation and has the least-impressive numbers. Against lesser competition like Central Michigan, Keisel is stingy with his runs allowed, even kicking off a shutout of CMU. But he's also given up plenty of runs, surrendering five in just 2.1 innings against Oregon State and four in 1.1 innings last Sunday.
Patience is key with Keisel. He'll run up a high pitch count working all aspects of the plate. He leads Oklahoma State in walks issued.
Key To A TCU Victory
It's more of the same for TCU this weekend. The two most critical aspects of the game for the Frogs right now is starting pitching consistency and batting with runners in scoring position.
Peyton Chatagnier has been on a brutal cold streak, batting just .125 (3-for-24) over the last two weekend series. Chase Brunson hasn't been much better, hitting just .150 (3-for-20) in the same stretch. Payton Tolle continues to sit after suffering an injury against Kansas.
Logan Maxwell continues to be the most reliable bat, now by a wide margin, hitting nearly .400 on the year with 18 walks drawn and just eight strikeouts. Although he's yet to hit his first home run – and the RBI department lacks due to nobody getting on base ahead of him – nobody can deliver a hit when needed more consistently than Maxwell.
That has to change. The core of TCU's lineup has to improve their batting quickly, or the Horned Frogs will turn in a dud of a season.
Player To Watch
I usually like to change things up week-to-week and give each member of the TCU Horned Frogs baseball squad a moment in the spotlight. But I have to return to Peyton Chatagnier this week as my player to keep an eye on.
Chatagnier is TCU's most dangerous offensive player. He has an uncanny ability to turn in extra-base hits, exhaust pitchers with an eagle's eye at the plate, and menace on the bases as the Frogs' best base runner. But he's reached base just six times in the past two weekend series, notching three hits and drawing three walks.
The best players in the nation go through batting slumps. Some are worse slumps than others. Chat's current slump leans worse than not.
But with two pitchers that allow frequent and strong contact, this might be the series to get the Ole Miss transfer back on track.
How To Watch TCU Vs. Oklahoma State
When: Friday, Mar. 22, 6:00 p.m. | Saturday, Mar. 23, 6:00 p.m. | Sunday, Mar. 24, 1:00 p.m.
Where: O'Brate Stadium (Stillwater, OK)
TV/Streaming: Big 12 Now on ESPN+
Radio: KTCU 88.7 FM
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