TCU Horned Frogs Host Kansas State Wildcats In Big 12 Baseball Tilt

The pressure's on to make the postseason as the TCU Horned Frogs host the Kansas State Wildcats for a three-game Big 12 series.

Preseason expectation to host a Regional and compete for a spot in the College World Series has devolved into fighting for a berth to even participate in the postseason. Coming off another conference series loss, the TCU Horned Frogs (24-15, 8-13 Big 12) host the Kansas State Wildcats (25-15, 9-9) for a three-game series. Earlier this week, head coach Kirk Saarloos noted that TCU would need to finish the conference season out 6-3 or better to land a seat in the NCAA Tournament.

Currently, the Horned Frogs sit 1.5 games outside of the Big 12 Tournament field and 7.5 games back of first place. Far from an insurmountable deficit, TCU has its work cut out as the season begins to turn to the home stretch.

Kansas State at TCU kicks off Friday evening at 6:30 p.m. CT. Due to potential weather on Sunday, a doubleheader will be played on Saturday. Game 2 is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. on Saturday, and Game 3 finale will start approximately 45 minutes after that game concludes. All three games stream on ESPN+ or can be broadcast on 88.7 FM KTCU. Due to potential weather, all weekend, this schedule is subject to more changes.

On Their Last Frog Legs?

For the first time all season, Saarloos addressed the real urgency surrounding this season. Not only will 2024 go down as a massive disappointment, but it could be entirely lost if TCU finishes the year out worse than .667 in league play. Beyond K-State, TCU faces Baylor and West Virginia, the latter of which was leading the Big 12 as recently as two weeks ago.

Last weekend's series loss wasn't just a tough pill to swallow, but a truly demoralizing kick to the gut. It was the final time TCU and Texas squared off as conference foes for a series (the Longhorns depart for the SEC in July), and TCU scored just one run over the final 18 innings. The offense has arrived at unfixable, rather than just a concern.

While Kansas State as a team allows a 5.58 ERA (fourth-highest in the Big 12), a lot of that damage has come from opposing power – they've given up 52 home runs this year, tied for the second-most. The more telling story is the opposing batting average allowed, just a .254, the fifth-best mark in the league. A pitching staff that allows a low average and requires power hitting to score on them is Kryptonite for this TCU lineup that wants to excel at small ball and has scored the second-fewest runs in the conference.

It's not all doom and gloom this weekend, but the odds are certainly stacked against TCU.

Sizing Up The Wildcats

Failing to meet preseason expectations isn't a role reserved for TCU alone. Kansas State debuted in D1Baseball's top 25 preseason rankings and never really got into a rhythm. They're just 8-9 following a 10-game win streak and sit in a precarious four-way tie for sixth place. This year, they swept Houston and took two of three from Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. But they also dropped all three to Oklahoma and lost back-to-back series against Texas and UCF.

The K-State offense excels at small ball. As a team, they've accumulated the third-most hits in the Big 12 and lead the conference in steals. In terms of power and extra-base hitting, the Wildcats are average. Karson Bowen and Kurtis Byrne will be tested behind the plate with K-State's aggressive base-stealing, but the pair is one of the most dynamic defensive catcher duos in the nation.

Center fielder Brendan Jones (.306 average) is of particular note. His 28 stolen bases this year leads the Big 12 by 10 and he's drawn 37 walks versus 34 strikeouts. The junior leads off for good reason; he'll work pitchers deep into counts and, when he gets on base, demands attention. The base-stealing isn't just reckless abandon, either – he's been caught stealing just once on the year.

Redshirt junior Brady Day might present the toughest out in the K-State lineup. The second baseman bats .372 (second-best in the Big 12) and has drawn 34 walks versus just 23 strikeouts. Day's also a proficient base-stealer (12) and has seven home runs on the season.

Pitching Matchups

As coaches continue to play chicken with announcing their rotations, this section becomes increasingly more difficult to write accurately each week.

Nine different Wildcats have starts this season. After a 31-run shelling in three games to Oklahoma, Kansas State changed up the rotation last weekend. Run mitigation was much better and they may opt to stick with the same plan this weekend.

Saturday starter Owen Boerema (3-3, 5.50 ERA) moved to Friday, replacing a struggling Josh Wintroub (2-2, 6.75). Closer Jackson Wentworth (3-1, 3.00) appeared for a start against the Pokes, going 6.1 quality innings. Wentworth has one of the lowest ERAs in the conferece, as well as the fourth-most strikeouts (70). Freshman Blake Dean (2-3, 5.06) was the Sunday starter, but closed Sunday's game against Oklahoma State instead.

Keep an eye out for official announcements regarding pitching for Kansas State.

Peyton Tolle (4-3, 3.43) is the lone confirmed starter, set to continue his Friday night role. Louis Rodriguez (3-2, 4.17) struggled in his last few outings and not including him in the midweek rotation announcement could hint at him remaining in his relief role after picking up a save Tuesday. Freshman Mason Bixby (1-1, 4.11) continues to impress as a starter and likely takes the bump one of the weekend games.

Other names in consideration to start include Ben Hampton (1-1, 7.11) and Kole Klecker (0-2, 5.86).

Player To Watch

The two catchers have my eye this weekend – Karson Bowen and Kurtis Byrne. Whoever gears up behind the plate will have an opportunity to flex his defensive chops against Jones, Day, and the rest of the ultra-aggressive Kansas State lineup.

Regardless of the defensive prowess at catcher, the Wildcats are going to try to run. Friday evening's battle between baserunner and catcher will likely set the tone for the rest of the series. Should Bowen or Byrne throw out a couple would-be base stealers early on, K-State may tone down the aggression. Keeping runners out of scoring position effectively puts the clamps on what the Wildcats want to do.

With the offense continually stagnant, the game plan turns entirely to run prevention. Bowen and Byrne will be instrumental in keeping K-State from threatening.

How To Watch TCU Vs. Kansas State

When: Apr. 26, 6:30 p.m. | Apr. 27, 1:00 p.m. | Apr. 27, 5:00 p.m.(approximately)

Where: Lupton Stadium (Fort Worth, TX)

TV/Streaming: Big 12 Now on ESPN+

Radio: KTCU 88.7 FM

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