TCU Football: Tori's Thoughts - Neal Brown, West Virginia Finding Unexpected Early Season Success
TCU and West Virginia will both put a three-game win streak on the line this Saturday at 7 p.m.
The Mountaineers' 3-1 start has been one of the surprises in the Big 12 this season, especially considering head coach Neal Brown was lucky to keep his job after last year. That inspired me to examine if it's possible for Brown to extend his stay in Morgantown beyond 2023. And now that TCU and West Virginia are no longer the Big 12 newbies, I look at how the move has treated each program.
West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown argues a call during the first quarter against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Can Neal Brown Save His Job Again?
Brown entered the 2023 season on a burning hot seat. For very good reasons, how quickly he would be fired this fall became a common talking point among Big 12 media members.
Brown became West Virginia's head coach in 2019 and had a 22-25 record entering this year. It felt inevitable many times last season West Virginia would fire him. Instead, the Mountaineers won two of their final three games and finished 5-7, which seemingly saved Brown's job.
It probably helped West Virginia fired its athletic director during that final three-game stretch. The new athletic director officially came aboard right before football's early national signing day in December. Firing a coach with National Signing Day looming large doesn't make much sense.
On the surface, keeping Brown looks like the right move. West Virginia is 3-1, winning three consecutive games for the first time under Brown and beating Texas Tech for the first time since 2018. Taking a deeper dive, the record loses some luster. The Mountaineers lost at No. 6 Penn State, then beat FCS Duquesne, a 1-3 Pittsburgh team (which also lost 27-21 to Cincinnati), and an underachieving Texas Tech squad.
West Virginia's defense is a big reason for the hot start. The defense allows 18.5 points a game, 311 total yards, a 25% third-down conversion rate, and ranks No. 29 nationally in defensive passing efficiency.
The offense has been ugly at times, putting up just 17.3 points per game against FBS opponents. Quarterbacks Garrett Greene (3 starts) and Nicco Marichol (1 start) have combined for a 56 percent completion rate, 159 passing yards per game, and six touchdowns. (Greene is the usual starter but suffered an injury in the Pitt game.) West Virginia averages 189 rushing yards per game.
As the season wears on, the defense will need more help from the offense. West Virginia's schedule is favorable, though, avoiding Texas, Kansas, and Kansas State, three of the conference's best teams. Winning six or seven games and making a bowl game might keep Brown in Morgantown. It's also possible the offense never gets going, West Virginia misses a bowl game for a second straight year, and Brown is out of a job.
Regardless, it will be fascinating to watch West Virginia from afar and see who the head coach is in 2024.
TCU & WVU: Comparing the Old Big 12 "Newbies"
Now that the Big 12 has added four new teams, TCU and West Virginia are no longer the newest members. These veteran teams joined Big 12 in 2012 with very different backgrounds. The Horned Frogs were dominating the mid-major (now Group of 5) level, while the Mountaineers had won back-to-back Big East conference titles.
So, how has each team fared since then?
Looking solely at Big 12 records, TCU has done better. The Horned Frogs are 57-43 and posted four seasons with two losses or less, including last season's undefeated run. West Virginia is 48-51, featuring a 7-2 record in 2016 and a second-place finish.
When it comes to head-to-head matchups, the Mountaineers hold a 6-5 edge, and it doesn't really matter where these teams play each other. Morgantown has been friendlier to TCU than Fort Worth by a slim margin. The Horned Frogs are 3-3 on the road and 2-3 at home. The last time TCU won at home in 2017, quarterback Kenny Hill threw, caught, and ran in a touchdown.
Postseason success favors TCU. The Horned Frogs shared the 2014 Big 12 title with Baylor and lost the 2022 Big 12 title game in overtime. A 5-3 bowl record is highlighted by a drubbing of Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, two Alamo Bowl wins, a turnover-crazed Cheez-It Bowl, and the College Football Playoff victory over Michigan.
West Virginia has never won the Big 12 and has had limited success in eight bowl games, winning a Cactus Bowl and Liberty Bowl.
Throughout their time in the Big 12, TCU and West Virginia have each made one coaching change. Brown replaced Dana Holgorsen in Morgantown, and Sonny Dykes took over in 2022 after Gary Patterson left TCU.
Both programs have produced first-team All-Americans (WVU: 6, TCU: 3), several NFL draft picks players (WVU: 26, TCU 32), and high-profile quarterbacks. West Virginia's Will Grier and TCU's Trevone Boykin were fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2018 and 2014, respectively, while Max Duggan came in second after the 2022 season.
Horned Frogs Take A Major Step Forward
TCU just keeps getting better. The win over SMU showed this is not the same team that lost in Week 1.
TCU's defense allowed a touchdown for the first time in nearly 10 quarters when SMU scored with 2:54 left in the first half. SMU quarterback Preston Stone completed just 45 percent of his passes, threw two picks, and had six passes batted down. The Horned Frogs recorded three sacks as well, which gives them a conference-best 16 through four games.
Quarterback Chandler Morris hit 72 percent of his targets, tossed three touchdowns, and, most importantly, did not turn the ball over. Emani Bailey did what he does best – run for over 100 yards and wear down the opposing defense.
Bailey is, at least statistically, the best running back in the Big 12. He averages 120 yards per game, 15 yards better than Kansas State's DJ Giddens. When the Horned Frogs need a play, Bailey usually delivers.
The rushing attack did get off to a slow start with just 26 yards at halftime. The offense also stalled out in the red zone twice and was unable to convert the interceptions into points. Those kinds of miscues are fixable, which is why confidence surrounding the Horned Frogs and what they can achieve is high. The season is still very young, but if this upward trend continues, TCU should make some noise in the Big 12 conference.
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