How Texas Tech can win the Big 12 and win the Conference Tournament
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Here are the pathways, challenges, and obstacles to Texas Tech winning the regular-season conference title and even the conference tournament title.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have a slim but mathematically plausible chance of beating the other Big 12 teams to be named conference co-regular season champions and winning the conference tournament that begins on March 10. They are now tied for second place after beating Iowa State on the road by nine.
The goal is to win the Big 12 regular-season title, and they can only win a share of it and not be the outright regular-season champions. However, there is a pathway to become co-champions. If two teams in the Big 12 have the same record, they are called "Co-Champions," and this is the "Co-Champions" path. Arizona, which is currently at the top of the Big 12 standings at 14-2, has at a minimum already clinched a share of the conference regular season title with two games left to play. Texas Tech 12-4 is currently in second place and tied with Houston, which has the same conference record.
Texas Tech has to win both of its last two games to finish with a record of 14-4. They have to win their last two games. Arizona needs to lose its last two games, which they would do against Colorado and Iowa State, in order to finish 14-4. Texas Tech defeated Arizona in the only game they have played against one another, and Houston and Texas Tech won one game each against each other.
If they end 14-4 in conference play, there will be a tie for the title amongst three teams, assuming Arizona loses its last two scheduled games and Houston wins its last two Big 12 regular-season games. Texas Tech also would need to defeat TCU and win at BYU.
If they want to win the Big 12 tournament and put themselves in the best position to do so, it is quite doubtful that they will get the No. 1 seed, but they have a decent chance of getting the No. 2 or even No. 3 seed for the conference tournament. In the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, tiebreakers decide which team gets to be the No. 1 seed if two teams tie for the regular season title. Head-to-head rules are applied when there is a tie. Arizona lost to Texas Tech, and this season, Houston split their games, each winning one and losing one. Then, the teams' scores against the next best team, which is probably Iowa State or Kansas, would be used to break the tie. The Red Raiders want to get two byes in the conference playoffs.
Texas Tech will have a double bye if they stay in the top four. They won't have to play again until Thursday, when the quarterfinals start. To win the Big 12 Conference Tournament in Kansas City, the Red Raiders will need to win three games in three days. Everyone knows that the Red Raiders lost All-American JT Toppin to an injury in the middle of February that terminated his season. To win three games in a row, key players like Donovan Atwell and Christian Anderson need to maintain playing well and scoring at least 15 points per game during the event.
Texas Tech makes 11.4 three-pointers a game, which is more than any other school in the Big 12. A lot of the time, shooting well from outside the arc is what makes teams win in a neutral-site tournament against more athletic frontcourts, like Houston's. Grant McCasland's "no-middle" defense, which is a strategy that prevents offensive players from driving to the middle of the court, has to be excellent to stop Arizona and Kansas guards who score a lot of baskets without Toppin's help at the rim.
Regardless of what the other Big 12 teams do in conference play, the Red Raiders can only control their own performances on the basketball court, and defeating TCU and then BYU puts them in a strong position to win the conference tournament and potentially receive as high as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If they win their last five games and win the conference tournament, they have an outside chance of receiving a No. 2 seed.
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Ryan Kay is a journalist who graduated from Michigan State in 2003 and is passionate about covering college sports and enjoys writing features and articles covering various collegiate teams. He has worked as an editor at Go Joe Bruin and has been a contributor for Longhorns Wire and Busting Brackets. He is a contributor for Texas Tech On SI.