Why Texas Tech Is Only Slight Favorite Over Akron In March Madness Opener

Texas Tech Red Raiders men's basketball head coach Grant McCasland celebrates with team after winning 82073 over Iowa State in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have to wait till Friday to play on the biggest stage that the sport offers.

March Madness will soon be upon us. The 64 teams in the tournament have dreams of being the last team standing, but only a very few have a legitimate shot at being crowned NCAA Division I champions.

We will find out who will be the last team standing in about three weeks, and the Red Raiders will look to be that team. Tech has its fair share of struggles and difficulties towards the end of the season as they enter this illustrious tournament.

They are not playing their best basketball of the season thus far, and on top of that, their first-round matchup has all the makings of a potential upset. The Red Raiders, who earned the No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region, will take on the No. 12 seed Akron on Friday.

As of Monday, the Red Raiders are only a -7.5 favorites over the Zips according to DraftKings. The matchup is set for 11:40 am CT and will be played in Tampa, Florida.

Will Texas Tech Avoid the Infamous 5–12 March Madness Upset?

The 5-12 matchups in the NCAA Tournament have been one of the most obscure upset picks for over a decade. Since the tournament field expanded in 1985, there have been a total of 57 upsets when it comes to the 5-12 matchup.

Going into this year's tournament, the lower seed is 57-103, resulting in a 35.6 win percentage.

The 5-12 matchup has become notorious for being a popular upset pick, and unfortunately for Tech, this season and this matchup in particular are no different.

Since the expansion, the tournament committee has frequently paired a "surging" mid-major conference champion against a "middling" Power 5 team, creating a closer talent gap than their seeds suggest. The 12-seeds are often motivated, under-seeded teams, while 5-seeds may face higher pressure and stylistic mismatches.

The No. 12 seed in the tournament is often a strong team from a smaller conference that earned its bid by winning its conference tournament. As a result, these teams typically enter the tournament with plenty of confidence and, in many cases, long winning streaks.

This Tech and Akron matchup set for this week is no different.

Akron enters this tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field. They have won 19 of their last 20 games and finished the season with a stellar 28-5 record and a 17-1 conference mark, earning the MAC Championship. They have secured their fifth consecutive 20-win season and are dominating with 10 straight conference wins.

As for this matchup, these two teams play a similar style. Both live and die by the three, shooting a high volume. Texas Tech ranks as the 5th-best shooting team from deep, while the Zips are not too far behind at No. 21 nationally.

A cold shooting night for the Red Raiders could be the difference between playing into the weekend or being a one-and-done.

Texas Tech will have its hands full, as this path to being the last team standing will not be an easy one.

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