Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Three New Teams Enter, Top Seed Check After Losses

Fresh off perhaps the most exciting weekend of the season in men’s college basketball, where does the projected NCAA tournament field stand? Sports Illustrated has you covered with its newest Bracket Watch update. North Carolina and Kentucky rise after their big wins Saturday, but how much do top seeds Arizona, Duke and UConn fall because of their losses? SI dives into the latest projections, notes and storylines to watch as the bracket moves closer to completion on Selection Sunday.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

USC
Saint Mary’s
UCLA
Texas

Last Four In

Santa Clara
San Diego State
Missouri
Miami

First Four Out

Ohio State
New Mexico
VCU
Oklahoma State

Next Four Out

Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
Cal
West Virginia

Three new teams join the projected field this week: Santa Clara, Missouri and Miami. Santa Clara is walking a tightrope because of its ugly December Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago, but every other metric suggests this is an NCAA tournament team. Missouri’s top-end wins help for now, but the Tigers’ overall profile is fairly underwhelming. Their next five games are against projected NCAA tournament teams, which should make or break Dennis Gates’s team’s season. Meanwhile, Miami has two Quad 1 wins, but both are fairly underwhelming at Wake Forest and Syracuse. Wins against the projected field are a must in February.

It’s never good to be the outlier on the bubble, and right now Ohio State is as the only team with zero Quad 1 wins we were considering right at the cut line. That 0–7 mark in Quad 1 and overall being just 9–8 against the top three quads is relatively underwhelming. The good news for the Buckeyes is they get a monster nonconference opportunity this weekend against Virginia in Nashville. Win that one, and Buckeye fans can feel a lot better about their NCAA tournament hopes.

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 NJIT*/Morgan State*
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Tulsa*
No. 4 Gonzaga* vs. No. 13 California Baptist*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Santa Clara/Missouri
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Portland State*
No. 7 Saint Louis* vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 Wright State*

Kansas’s upset of Arizona leaves the Wildcats no longer undefeated, but Arizona remains our overall No. 1 seed edging out Michigan thanks to its elite overall body of work. The more intriguing question is how high Kansas can rise as the Jayhawks continue their surge, now winners of eight straight. The résumé for the Jayhawks goes beyond just their big wins at Allen Fieldhouse, with road wins at Texas Tech and NC State as well as a key neutral victory over Tennessee. The five total losses keep them off the No. 2 line for now, but that could change by Selection Sunday.

One of the most bizarre bracket storylines we’re monitoring is in the WAC, where league-leading Utah Valley is in a spat with the league office over a dispute involving unpaid conference exit fees. The league is suing UVU over the $1 million unpaid fee and has escalated things in recent days, barring the Wolverines from playing in the WAC tournament and withholding Utah Valley’s media rights, meaning their home games last week weren’t televised. As a result, we’re putting California Baptist (winners of eight straight) as the projected auto bid for the WAC as things currently stand, but if the dispute ends before March, UVU figures to have a good chance at the program’s first-ever NCAA tournament bid.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 LIU*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 SMU
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Winthrop*
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Miami/San Diego State
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 North Dakota State*
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 UT Martin*

North Carolina’s résumé all of a sudden looks quite appealing, both thanks to its buzzer-beating win over Duke on Saturday and recent success of some of its earlier season opponents. The Heels are one of eight teams with four or more Q1A wins. Their win at Kentucky from earlier this year has aged nicely, as have victories over Kansas and Virginia. Essentially, take out North Carolina’s disastrous Bay Area trip in mid-January, and the Heels have the profile of a top-two seed.

Iowa has ripped through the more manageable stretch of its Big Ten schedule with six straight wins, including three road wins at Indiana, Oregon and Washington that have helped from a résumé perspective. The Hawkeyes are still lacking in top-end wins, but with home dates with Purdue, Nebraska and Michigan in the next month, opportunity awaits. With strong predictive metrics, even just one elite win like that could send Ben McCollum’s team shooting up the seed list.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Navy*
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 UC Irvine*
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Florida* vs. No. 14 Troy*
No. 7 NC State vs. No. 10 Georgia
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Austin Peay*

Kentucky is quietly just a half-game off the lead in the SEC after beating Tennessee on Saturday for an eighth win in its last nine games. Metrics still don’t love the Wildcats, but the sweep of the Volunteers, road win at Arkansas and neutral win over St. John’s is a strong top to a résumé. Win Saturday against Florida in Gainesville and things get even more interesting for Mark Pope’s squad.

The Miami (Ohio) at-large case gets more interesting by the day, though the undefeated RedHawks hope not to need any Selection Sunday luck if they can take care of business in the MAC tournament. Miami (Ohio)’s now 24–0, with a top-25 strength of record and is top 35 in the important “Wins Above Bubble” metric after blowing out Marshall over the weekend. Gut feeling suggests that anything more than two losses on Selection Sunday would be tough for the RedHawks to overcome (with one obviously coming in the conference tournament), but we basically have no résumé to compare Miami (Ohio) to from prior years to have a great feel of how the committee might treat Travis Steele’s team.

South Region

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Merrimack*
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Harvard*

UConn’s loss at a surging St. John’s team wasn’t enough to knock the Huskies off the No. 1 line, but there’s a strong group of No. 2 seeds that could supplant them down the stretch especially with the Huskies’ lack of big-win opportunities. Circle Feb. 21 at Villanova and Feb. 25 vs. St. John’s as critical games—fail to sweep those two, and the path to the top line will require some help.

BYU has lost five of six, its only win since Jan. 15 a home rivalry win over Utah. The losses individually are all understandable, with four coming against top-tier teams and the fifth a road trip to a desperate Oklahoma State team. That’s why the Cougars haven’t fallen too far down the seed list, but Kevin Young’s team has to right the ship quickly. It feels critical to win these next two against Baylor and Colorado before a grueling stretch next week against Arizona and Iowa State.

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