Score Prediction for Texas Tech vs. UCF
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It has been a dream season for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders' football team started 9-1, with a 6-1 record in conference play; it is the program's best season in nearly two decades.
The goal is to earn an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game and the College Football Playoff, but a matchup with the UCF Knights in Week 12 comes first. The Red Raiders are looking to extend their two-game winning streak before entering a Week 13 bye and finishing the year on the road in Week 14 against West Virginia.
Regular-season finale at Jones AT&T Stadium tomorrow afternoon!
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 14, 2025
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Through 11 weeks, the Knights have a record of 4-5 (1-5 in the Big 12) and are dealing with injuries heading into Week 12. They will be without their snap leader on offense — center Carter Miller — and starting slot defender Braeden Marshall is listed as doubtful.
Two key players are also listed as questionable: leading rusher Myles Montgomery and top defender Nyjalik Kelly, who had a boot on his foot last week. The running back room as a whole has been dealing with injuries, with Stacy Gage ruled out and Taevion Swint sidelined.
"There's a few spots where, you know, we're thin enough that we're having to borrow people for practice. That's just the game again, and it won't happen every year to every team, but once in a while you have a rash of injuries," said UCF head coach Scott Frost during the team's press conference on Monday, Oct. 10.
As a result, wide receiver Duane Thomas Jr. has seen an increase in action in the backfield. Despite the injuries, the Knights have maintained a steady rushing attack, ranking sixth in the Big 12 in yards per game. However, the offense as a whole has been mediocre. UCF ranks ninth in total yards per game and 11th in points per game.
This does not bode well in a matchup with the best run defense in the country. The Red Raiders rank first in stop rate and rushing yards allowed per game, anchored by some of the top run defenders in the conference, including linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and interior defender A.J. Holmes Jr.
One player on Texas Tech's defense ready for the challenge is interior defender Lee Hunter, who transferred to Lubbock, Texas, after three seasons with UCF.
"It's a great community, great atmosphere. I wish I would have came to this place three years ago, but I didn't," Hunter said on Tuesday, Nov. 11, during a press conference.
Even though he is facing his old team, Hunter shared that his mind is elsewhere ahead of the Big 12 matchup: "It's no emotions. My daughter is coming to the game; this is her first football game she's seen me play. So, it's no emotions, just more excitement. I really want to win this game by a lot of points, and I'm ready for Saturday."
The highlight of UCF's season has been its defense. It has the second-best PFF defensive grade in the Big 12 this season (92.0) with the third-best run-defense and coverage grades. The Knights have allowed just 20 points per game, but that number has jumped to 25.7 in conference play.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is averaging a conference-best 42.1 points per game, even if they have struggled to consistently move the ball. Settling for field goals, three-and-outs, and pre-snap penalties have plagued the Red Raiders' offense, but their firepower and complementary football have led Texas Tech to win nine games by 22+ points.
With an average margin of victory of 33.2 points (26.7 points in Big 12 play) and no more than 20 points allowed in nine of 10 games, the Red Raiders have proven to be the top team in the Big 12 so far this season. They will be UCF's biggest challenge this year, a tall task for a team with just six conference wins since joining the Big 12.
The sportsbooks expect another strong performance from Texas Tech, which enters the week as a 23.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings. With a total of 48.5 points, the game is expected to be all scarlet and black.
Score: Texas Tech 41-14
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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