Staff Predictions: Texas Tech Football vs. Houston
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A much-needed bye week came and went for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. After "winning" the bye week and jumping up to No. 11 in the latest AP Poll, Tech is expecting a return from quarterback Behren Morton, who exited the win against the Utah Utes with a neck injury.
Two of the last four undefeated teams in the Big 12 face off at TDECU Stadium in Houston as the 4-0 Houston Cougars welcome the 4-0 Red Raiders. Texas Tech is expected to be favored in the road matchup as one of the preseason Big 12 favorites, but Houston has been a surprising riser this season.
After the offense stole the show in Weeks 1-3 — averaging 58 points per game — the defense took over to open Big 12 play. The Utes were stifled in the run game, and even without much success rushing the passer, the Red Raiders grabbed two interceptions and forced four turnovers.
Game week in Houston‼️ pic.twitter.com/KF91nsmPZO
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 30, 2025
Facing another run-first offense, the Red Raiders have shown what they need to keep the Cougars in check and move to 2-0 in conference play, but it will not be without a fight. Texas Tech enters the game as 11.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings, with a total of 51.5 points.
The Cougars have gone 6-7 at home in the last two seasons since joining the Big 12. Texas Tech has a two-game winning streak on the road against Houston and has won six consecutive matchups. The former Southwest Conference foes have faced off 35 times, with Houston leading the all-time series 18-16-1. The two teams played each other every year from 1976 to 1995.
Prediction | Predictor |
|---|---|
Texas Tech 35-17 | Jordan Epp |
Texas Tech 34-14 | Spencer Schubert |
Texas Tech 38-17 | JD Andress |
Texas Tech 38-17 | Julio Gonzales Jr. |
Texas Tech 34-21 | Ryan Kay |
Jordan Epp: In many ways, Houston wants to play like Utah in spirit but does not have the same horses needed to execute that game plan. The running game that makes the Utes a formidable foe is a product of one of the most dominant offensive lines in the country, an athletic quarterback, and a talented running back. The duo of Dean Connors and Conner Weigman does not pack the same punch.
Spencer Schubert: Tech's defense has been lights out, allowing just 11.3 points per game. Add on the fact that Houston's offensive line is 134th nationally in allowing QB pressure, and that Red Raider defense might have a day.
JD Andress: The Red Raiders are flat-out dominant. They’ve shown that this season, and while fans remain skittish on the season meltdown they are accustomed to, I don’t think it happens this season, let alone this weekend. Houston has shown flashes but struggled against an Oregon State team that Texas Tech had no problems with. All Red Raiders in this one.
Julio Gonzales Jr.: The Red Raiders are coming off a bye week after dominating their conference opener against Utah. Will Hammond stepped in for Morton, and the offense continued to perform well. Morton will return as the starting quarterback, but now Tech is confident that if anything were to happen to him, the offense would still be in good hands with Hammond. The team has been on a roll, and I expect Morton to have a big game upon his return.
The defense has also performed well, forcing four turnovers and successfully containing the Utes. I expect them, currently allowing 238 yards per game, to have a similar performance here and limit Weigman's impact. Weigman has thrown for 839 yards and six touchdowns while also rushing for 141 yards and four additional scores. This game may remain close for a quarter or so, but ultimately, the Red Raiders will pull away.
Ryan Kay: Texas Tech's offense is led by Morton, an experienced quarterback. Texas Tech is also one of only a handful of FBS teams with both a top-15 offense and a top-15 defense. The defense has been outstanding, particularly in the first half, as the defensive line is considered one of the best in the country against the run. They allow very few yards per passing attempt, which could be a major problem for Houston's offense.
The Red Raiders enter the game 4-0, coming off an impressive 34-10 road win over Utah, and had a bye week going into this game. By comparison, the Cougars are also 4-0, but they needed overtime to defeat Oregon State 27-24, a team that Texas Tech had a dominant victory over in Week 3.
Texas Tech will win this game convincingly to get in the top-10 ranks for Week 7.
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-43389ae7766a84cbb8a6c33939d17968.jpeg "Jordan Epp")
Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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