Could There Be An All-ACC/SEC College Football Playoffs?
Back in 2011 the college football world—at least that part of the world outside of the SEC—erupted in righteous indignation as Alabama and LSU finished 1-2 in the final BCS standings and played for the national championship. It was, without question, the moment that put the sport on the path to the current four-team College Football Playoff.
Don’t look now, but the COVID-crazy 2020 season may have a similar ending.
Could you believe a four-team field for the CFP coming exclusively from the ACC and SEC?
After Tuesday night’s reveal of the second set of the CFP rankings it is not only possible but, if a couple of things fall into place, an All-ACC/SEC playoffs could be quite likely.
The top eight teams from week 1 remained the same in week 2, which is a first for the CFP rankings.
Alabama (SEC), Notre Dame (ACC), Clemson (ACC), and Ohio State (Big Ten) remained the top four followed by Texas A&M (SEC) and Florida (SEC).
Simple math tells us that with five of the top six teams in the rankings being from those two conferences increases the chances of this happening.
Also, there is this: Ohio State is 4-0 after its game with Illinois last Saturday was cancelled because of the virus. The Buckeyes are scheduled to host Michigan State on Saturday without Coach Ryan Day, who tested positive for the virus. Ohio State then finishes with Michigan.
The best Ohio State can finish is 7-0 with a Big Ten championship. Would that be enough to get the Buckeyes into the playoffs over teams that have played 10 or 11 games?
And if Ohio State is unable to play on of its final two regular-season games, the Buckeyes would be ineligible to play in the Big Ten championship game but would play a to-be-determined Big Ten team on Dec. 19.
In short, the committee just might have a Ohio State problem. How will they resolve it?
If Ohio State/Big Ten champion doesn’t make the playoffs there are several scenarios that could give us an All ACC/SEC final four. These scenarios also assume that the Big 12—where everybody has two losses—and the Pac-12, where Oregon was upset by Oregon State last week, are out of it.
Scenario No. 1: Pretty simple: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game, handing the Gators their second loss. Clemson wins a close rematch with Notre Dame in the ACC championship game and both teams get in. Texas A&M wins out to finish at 9-1. The Aggies would have the best win (over Florida) among the remaining teams and its only loss would be to No. 1 Alabama.
Scenario 2: Florida upsets Alabama in the SEC championship game. Clemson beats Notre Dame and both get in. Texas A&M gets edged out by 10-1 Alabama for the No. 4 spot because it lost head-to-head to the Crimson Tide.
And while we’re playing “What If?” let’s ponder this: There is a way that THREE SEC teams could get into the playoffs with one ACC team.
How would that work? Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championship game and both get in. Notre Dame beats Clemson in the ACC championship game and eliminates the two-loss Tigers. So for the No. 4 spot the committee gets to choose from a 9-1 Texas A&M, a 10-0 Cincinnati, a 9-1 Miami, a 9-2 Big 12 champ (Oklahoma or Iowa State). Texas A&M would have a win over the SEC champion (Florida) with its only loss being to Alabama.
Three SEC teams in the final four would be good just for the entertainment value alone.
So what about No. 7 Cincinnati?
Yep, there is a path, albeit it a narrow one, for the Bearcats: Alabama soundly beats Florida. Notre Dame wins big over Clemson. Texas A&M loses to Auburn, Tennessee, or Ole Miss. Would the committee take undefeated Cincinnati over a two-loss Big 12 champion? The problem for Cincinnati is that its game last week with Temple was cancelled and the Bearcats need all the data points they can get. Cincinnati is at Tulsa on Dec. 12 and will play Tulsa again in the AAC championship game on Dec. 19.
Here is the new CFP Top 10 with games remaining.
1—Alabama (8-0): Saturday at LSU; Dec. 12 at Arkansas; Dec. 19 SEC Championship game.
2—Notre Dame (9-0): Saturday vs. Syracuse; Dec. 19 ACC Championship game.
3—Clemson (8-1): Saturday at Virginia Tech; Dec. 19 ACC championship game (if Clemson beats Virginia Tech).
4—Ohio State (4-0): Saturday at Michigan State, Dec. 12 vs. Michigan; Dec. 19 TBD
5—Texas A&M (6-1): Saturday at Auburn; Dec. 12 vs. Ole Miss; Dec. 19 at Tennessee.
6—Florida (7-1): Saturday at Tennessee; Dec. 12 vs. LSU; Dec. 19 SEC championship game
7—Cincinnati (8-0): Dec. 12 at Tulsa; Dec. 19 AAC championship game
8—Georgia (6-2): Saturday vs. Vanderbilt; Dec. 12 at Missouri.
9--Iowa State (7-2): Saturday vs. West Virginia; Dec. 19 TBD
10—Miami (7-1): Saturday at Duke; Dec. 12 vs. North Carolina; Dec. 19 vs. Georgia Tech