Five Reasons That Alabama Will Win
A college football season like no other will come to an end Monday night when No. 1 Alabama (12-0) meets No. 3 Ohio State (7-0) for the College Football Playoff national championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
And there are storylines galore:
**--Last summer there were serious doubts about whether or not we would even get here because of the COVID-19 virus. The season, as promised, never went in a straight line. It was a daily physical and emotional grind for players and coaches and the administrators to keep things running safely. It wasn’t perfect. Some folks still think we should not have played. I get it. But here we are.
**--Alabama has a chance to win its sixth national championship under Nick Saban since 2009. A win would give him his seventh national title overall, surpassing another Alabama’s legend, Paul “Bear” Bryant.
**--The SEC, which was able to play 69 of 71 games scheduled this season, can win its 11th national championship in the past 15 years. The four non-SEC national champs in that stretch have been Florida State (2013), Ohio State (2014), and Clemson (2016, 2018).
**--Only once in those 15 years has there not been an SEC team in the national championship game (Ohio State vs. Oregon, 2014).
So, does Alabama continue the SEC’s dominance or does Ohio State win the national championship for the first time since 2014, when it beat Alabama in the semifinals of the first CFP?
My job today is to tell you why Alabama will win. Here are five pretty good reasons:
1—Mac Jones: The redshirt junior from Jacksonville is an incredible story of persistence. He was a long-time commitment to Kentucky when he was in high school but Saban offered him the chance to come to Alabama. He played late in the 2019 season when Tua Tagovailoa was hurt but no one saw 2020 coming. Jones did nothing less than put together the greatest season ever by an Alabama quarterback, completing 77 percent of his passes for 4,036 yards (Alabama record), 36 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He posted 100 passing plays of 15 yards or more and 46 plays of 24 yards or more. Can you say explosive?
Ohio State will try to make Jones uncomfortable. I’m not sure the Buckeyes can.
2—DeVonta Smith: Ladies and gentlemen, here is your Heisman Trophy winner, the first wide receiver to win since Desmond Howard in 1991. As a freshman in 2017 Smith caught the walk-off touchdown pass to beat Georgia 26-23 for the national championship. Little did we know at the time that Smith was just getting started.
He could have turned pro last season when he was a part of the best receiving corps ever assembled at Alabama (Smith, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle). Ruggs and Jeudy were taken in the first 15 picks in the draft and Smith decided to stay to improve his draft stock. He has.
Smith, in fact, was considered the No. 2 receiver on this team until Waddle got hurt in the fourth game. Smith stepped up and was unstoppable, catching 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 touchdowns. With 10 yards passing in this game he will pass Vanderbilt’s Jordan Matthews as the SEC’s all-time leader in receiving yards.
And it’s not just Smith. John Metchie caught 47 balls this season.
Here is the key stat: Opponents have completed 63.8 percent of their passes against the Ohio State secondary. The Buckeyes are 116 nationally in pass defense, giving up 281.1 passing yards per game.
3--The big uglies up front: The Joe Moore Award goes to the best offensive line in college football. Alabama was an easy choice with two first-team All-Americans—center Landon Dickerson and tackle Alex Leatherwood—in the starting five.
This offensive line has given Alabama the ability to beat teams however they choose. If an Alabama opponent commits an extra defender trying to keep the passing game from blowing up, then the big guys will give them a big old dose of No. 22, Najee Harris. Harris is Alabama’s all-time leading rusher with 3,764 yards and 54 touchdowns (44 rushing).
Behind this offensive line, Alabama has averaged 5.08 yards per carry, second in the SEC only to Texas A&M.
Unfortunately, Dickerson will not play in Monday night’s game after suffering an injury in the SEC championship game on Dec. 19. He will be replaced by redshirt senior Chris Owens, a former starter.
4—The Alabama defense has gotten better, and better, and better: In the third game of the season on Oct. 11 the Alabama defense gave up 647 total yards in a 63-48 win over Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide was, in a word, concerned.
But since then Alabama has held every opponent except one (Florida in the SEC championship game) to 24 points or fewer. It has held seven opponents to 17 points or fewer.
In the past four games Alabama has recorded 20 quarterback sacks.
The run defense has also improved. In the first five games opponents averaged 147 yards rushing, which included a 268 yards by Ole Miss. Over the past seven games Alabama has allowed only 83.9 yards rushing per game.
How Alabama’s defense performs against Ohio State’s running game will be important on Monday night. Buckeye running back Trey Sermon, the transfer from Oklahoma, has run for 524 yards in his past two games (331 vs. Northwestern, 193 vs. Clemson).
5—Nick Saban: Monday night will mark the eighth national championship game Alabama has played in since Nick Saban became head coach in 2007. He has won five of the previous seven, losing only to Clemson in 2016 and 2018.
It can be argued that Saban has done one of his best coaching jobs ever with this 2020 team. He did not have a vintage Alabama defense but he more than compensated for it bringing in offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian last season and unleashing what must now be considered the best two offenses in Alabama history.
FINAL ANALYSIS: With six first-team All-Americans, Alabama clearly has the more talented and deeper team. But if the Ohio State team and quarterback Justin Fields repeat their semifinal performance against Clemson, this has a chance to be one of the best championship games since the CFP was started in 2014.
FINAL SCORE: Alabama 42, Ohio State 31