Georgia's No. 1; Michigan Is No. 2. Now What? Does Alabama Have A Shot?
ATLANTA--The 13-member panel that makes up the College Football Playoff Selection Committee had better make another pot of coffee. It could be a long Saturday night.
The final weekend of college football's regular season got off to an unexpected start Friday night when No. 4 USC was thumped by Utah 47-24 in the Pac-12 championship game.
So conventional wisdom had it that No. 5 Ohio State (11-1), which did not play on Saturday, would simply slide into the No. 4 spot and that would be that.
The expectation became that the top three in the CFP Standings—Georgia, Michigan, and TCU—would take care of business and everybody would get to go home early.
Georgia did its part in manhandling LSU 50-30 in the SEC championship game in Atlanta. The defending national champions are expected to be the No. 1 seed when the final CFP rankings are released at Noon on Sunday (ESPN).
No. 2 Michigan, coming off a huge win over Ohio State last week, kept its status as the No. 2 seed as it beat Purdue 43-22 late Saturday night in the Big Ten champioship game.
But when I woke up Saturday morning, something told me it was not going to be that easy.
It wasn't.
TCU, which began the day at 12-0, had been winning close games all season. But on Saturday the Horned Frogs ran out of luck, losing to Kansas State 31-28 in overtime in the Big 12 championship game.
There was a point of view that TCU should stay in the top four despite the loss.
But as Saturday afternoon turned into Saturday night there was the nagging feeling that that perhaps the committee's work would not be so simple.
A number of issues are on the table for the selection committee.
They could move TCU down to No. 4 and say they deserve to be there because they played more games than the next two contending teams, Alabama (10-2) and Tennessee (10-2). But if TCU goes to No. 4 the CFP would have a Michigan-Ohio State rematch of the game played Nov. 26.
You could put No. 6 Alabama in the field because the Crimson Tide's two losses to Tennessee and LSU were both on the road and both on the last play of the game. The Tide also has quarterback Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
But the understandable pushback from Tennessee, which won head to head against Alabama, would be enormous.
TCU would have a case as the Horned Frogs not only won two more games, they beat every team on their schedule. Saturday's Big 12 championship game was a rematch of a 38-28 regular-season meeting.
Here's my take. There will be a lot of discussion of what to do with TCU. But at Noon on Sunday the playoff field will be:
No. 1 Georgia
No. 2 Michigan
No. 3 TCU
No. 4 Ohio State
Georgia and Ohio State would play their national semifinal game on Dec. 31 right back here at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It would mark the third time this season Georgia has played here, just about an hour away from its campus.
Michigan and TCU would play its semifinal on Dec. 31 in Glendale, Ariz.
The CFP national championship will be on Jan. 9 at SoFI Stadium in Los Angeles.
So who's going to be mad with these four teams?
Alabama and Tennessee fans won't understand why TCU is in and they are out. They will make the claim that TCU simply isn't as talented as these two SEC powers. The committee is supposed to select the four BEST teams, right?
And, as many texters told me on Saturday: "There ain't no way TCU is one of the best four teams in college football."
Maybe not. But the committee, as chairman Boo Corrigan said earlier, likes wins. TCU is one of only three teams in FBS football with 12 wins (Georgia and Michigan are the other two).
Before the game most analysts said that Georgia, Michigan, and TCU would be in the playoffs win or lose.
Georgia and Michigan won. TCU lost in overtime. So basically nothing has changed.
Alabama Coach Nick Saban, who has seven national championships, was on FOX at halftime of the Big Ten championship game Saturday night. He made his case that Alabama, whose losses to Tennessee (52-49) and LSU (32-31) were on the road at two of the toughest places to play in college football. Alabama lost both on the last play of the game.
Saban knew that the selection committee would be up late watching.
"Let's get the best teams in," said Saban. "Look at the teams being considered and if we played them would we be the favorite or the underdogs? That should anwser the question."