Mr. CFB: I Know It's Early But.....

It's a long season and a lot is going to happen. But here are five things outside the SEC that we know. At least we think we know

1. Clemson is in trouble. Here's why. 

Despite the stunning 28-7 loss to Duke on Monday night,  Clemson can still win the ACC championship and go to the College Football Playoff, At least they can on paper. But  the game, as the great Casey Stengel once said, is not played on paper.  

When the season started Clemson could afford to lose to Florida State on Sept. 23 in Death Valley and stay in the hunt for the CFP. But now, in my opinion, Clemson would have to beat Florida State twice--once in two weeks and again in the ACC championship game--to make the CFP.

I take no joy in writing this. I had Clemson in the College Football Playoff.

Bottom line: Losing to Duke leaves Clemson with absolutely no margin for error. The Tigers have to win them all.

2.  Don't believe coaches when they complain about the transfer portal. 

Yes, it's no fun when a team loses a quality player through the portal.. But what Colorado  and Deion Sanders have done is the new reality. Handled correctly you can use the portal to  rebuild a team in just one year. And with that many players on the move each year, we're going to have more upsets like Colorado over TCU. 

Part of that reality is that some coaches will work the portal better than others just like some schools will work NIL better than others.

Now the veteran coaches don't like this and that's understandable. The job is much easier when players stay for three or four years.

But that ship, dear readers,  has sailed.

3. Think the Big Ten and the SEC saw Florida State's TV numbers Sunday night?

You have to give credit to Florida State. The Seminoles had been beating their collective chests all summer  saying they deserved to be playing at the level--competitive and financially--as the big boys in the SEC and the Big Ten. I thought they were overstating their worth but then they backed it up on th field.

Here are the numbers you should know: The Florida State-LSU game drew an average television audience of 9.1 million and peaked out at 10.3 million. A good audience for a regular season college football game is about 4 million.

As we said above, Florida State goes to Clemson on Sept. 23. It will be interesting to see what the numbers will be.

Let's just put it this way. If Florida State's goal is to get out of the ACC, the Seminoles helped their cause Sunday night.

4. You want a touch of irony? Look no further than the lame duck Pac-12.

The Pac-12, which is essentially playing its final season, is 13-0. and has a chance to start 23-0 with 10 more non-conference games this Saturday.

It won't happen. Arizona goes to Mississippi State and California hosts Auburn. Nebraska goes to Colorado and  Oklahoma State goes to Arizona State. I don't think the Pac-12 will go 4-0 in those games.

But hey. For the Pac-12 it was fun while it lasted.

5.  Don't sleep on North Carolina: 

This summer the discussion on who would win the ACC usually stopped after Clemson and Florida State.

But don't forget about North Carolina.

The Tar Heels of Mack Brown have one of the very best quarterbacks in the country in Drake Maye, who completed 24 of 32 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-17 win over South Carolina. The UNC defense had nine sacks and held South Carolina to minus-2 yards rushing. The schedule looks manageable until a trip to Clemson on Nov. 18.

North Carolina has Appalachian State at home on Saturday. Last season''s meeting was a 63-61 shootout won by the Tar Heels in Boone, N.C.

Stay tuned.